This work reviews our understanding of the magnetic fields observed in the quiet Sun. The subject has undergone a major change during the last decade (quiet revolution), and it will remain changing since the techniques of diagnostic employed so far are known to be severely biased. Keeping these caveats in mind, our work covers the main observational properties of the quiet Sun magnetic fields: magnetic field strengths, unsigned magnetic flux densities, magnetic field inclinations, as well as the temporal evolution on short time-scales (loop emergence), and long time-scales (solar cycle). We also summarize the main theoretical ideas put forward to explain the origin of the quiet Sun magnetism. A final prospective section points out various areas of solar physics where the quiet Sun magnetism may have an important physical role to play (chromospheric and coronal structure, solar wind acceleration, and solar elemental abundances).

Using vector magnetograms obtained with the Spectro-polarimeter (SP) on aboard Hinode satellite, we studied two helicity parameters (local twist and current helicity) of 64 active regions occurred in the descending phase of solar cycle 23 and the ascending phase of solar cycle 24. Our analysis gives the following results. (1) The 34 active regions of the solar cycle 24 follow the so-called hemispheric helicity rule, whereas the 30 active regions of the solar cycle 23 do not. (2) When combining all 64 active regions as one sample, they follow the hemispheric helicity sign rule as in most other observations. (3) Despite with the so-far most accurate measurement of vector magnetic field given by SP/Hinode, the rule is still weak with large scatters. (4) The data show evidence of different helicity signs between strong and weak fields, confirming previous result from a large sample of ground-based observations. (5) With two example sunspots we show that the helicity parameters change sign from the inner umbra to the outer penumbra, where the sign of penumbra agrees with the sign of the active region as a whole. From these results, we speculate that both the Sigma-effect (turbulent convection) and the dynamo have contributed in the generation of helicity, whereas in both cases turbulence in the convection zone has played a significant role.

High degree solar mode frequencies as measured by ring diagrams are known to change in the presence of the strong magnetic fields found in active regions. We examine these changes in frequency for a large sample of active regions analyzed with data from the Michelson Doppler Imager (MDI) onboard the SoHO spacecraft, spanning most of solar cycle 23. We confirm that the frequencies increase with increasing magnetic field strength, and that this dependence is generally linear. We find that the dependence is slightly but significantly different for active regions with different sunspot types.

Polar fields in solar cycle 23 were about 50% weaker than those in cycle 22. The only theoretical models which have addressed this puzzle are surface transport models and flux-transport dynamo models. Comparing polar fields obtained from numerical simulations using surface flux transport models and flux-transport dynamo models, we show that both classes of models can explain the polar field features within the scope of the physics included in the respective models. In both models, how polar fields change as a result of changes in meridional circulation depends on the details of meridional circulation profile used. Using physical reasoning and schematics as well as numerical solutions from a flux-transport dynamo model, we demonstrate that polar fields are determined mostly by the strength of surface poloidal source provided by the decay of tilted, bipolar active regions. Profile of meridional flow with latitude and its changes with time have much less effect in flux-transport dynamo models than in surface transport models.

In this paper, I present the results on large-scale evolution of density turbulence of solar wind in the inner heliosphere during 1985 – 2009. At a given distance from the Sun, the density turbulence is maximum around the maximum phase of the solar cycle and it reduces to ~70%, near the minimum phase. However, in the current minimum of solar activity, the level of turbulence has gradually decreased, starting from the year 2005, to the present level of ~30%. These results suggest that the source of solar wind changes globally, with the important implication that the supply of mass and energy from the Sun to the interplanetary space has significantly reduced in the present low level of activity.

In this paper, I review the results of 3-D evolution of the inner heliosphere over the solar cycle #23, based on observations of interplanetary scintillation (IPS) made at 327 MHz using the Ooty Radio Telescope. The large-scale features of solar wind speed and density turbulence of the current minimum are remarkably different from that of the previous cycle. The results on the solar wind density turbulence show that (1) the current solar minimum is experiencing a low level of coronal density turbulence, to a present value of ~50% lower than the previous similar phase, and (2) the scattering diameter of the corona has decreased steadily after the year 2003. The results on solar wind speed are consistent with the magnetic-field strength at the poles and the warping of heliospheric current sheet.

We investigate the dependence of the amount of the observed galactic cosmic ray (GCR) influx on the solar North-South asymmetry using the neutron count rates obtained from four stations and sunspot data in archives spanning six solar cycles from 1953 to 2008. We find that the observed GCR influxes at Moscow, Kiel, Climax and Huancayo stations are more suppressed when the solar activity in the southern hemisphere is dominant compared with when the solar activity in the northern hemisphere is dominant. Its reduction rates at four stations are all larger than those of the suppression due to other factors including the solar polarity effect on the GCR influx. We perform the student’s t-test to see how significant these suppressions are. It is found that suppressions due to the solar North-South asymmetry as well as the solar polarity are significant and yet the suppressions associated with the former are larger and more significant.

After summarizing the relevant observational data, we discuss how a study of flux tube dynamics in the solar convection zone helps us to understand the formation of sunspots. Then we introduce the flux transport dynamo model and assess its success in modelling both the solar cycle and its departures from strictly periodic behaviour.

Supergranulation is a component of solar convection that manifests itself on the photosphere as a cellular network of around 35 Mm across, with a turnover lifetime of 1-2 days. It is strongly linked to the structure of the magnetic field. The horizontal, divergent flows within supergranule cells carry local field lines to the cell boundaries, while the rotational properties of supergranule upflows may contribute to the restoration of the poloidal field as part of the dynamo mechanism that controls the solar cycle. The solar minimum at the transition from cycle 23 to 24 was notable for its low level of activity and its extended length. It is of interest to study whether the convective phenomena that influences the solar magnetic field during this time differed in character to periods of previous minima. This study investigates three characteristics (velocity components, sizes and lifetimes) of solar supergranulation. Comparisons of these characteristics are made between the minima of cycles 22/23 and 23/24 using MDI Doppler data from 1996 and 2008, respectively. It is found that whereas the lifetimes are equal during both epochs (around 18 h), the sizes are larger in 1996 (35.9 +/- 0.3 Mm) than in 2008 (35.0 +/- 0.3 Mm), while the dominant horizontal velocity flows are weaker (139 +/- 1 m/s in 1996; 141 +/- 1 m/s in 2008). Although numerical differences are seen, they are not conclusive proof of the most recent minimum being inherently unusual.

Maunder Minimum forms an archetype for the Grand minima, and detailed knowledge of its temporal development has important consequences for the solar dynamo theory dealing with long-term solar activity evolution. Here we reconsider the current paradigm of the Grand minimum general scenario by using newly recovered sunspot observations by G. Marcgraf and revising some earlier uncertain data for the period 1636–1642, i.e., one solar cycle before the beginning of the Maunder Minimum. The new and revised data dramatically change the magnitude of the sunspot cycle just before the Maunder Minimum, from 60–70 down to about 20, implying a possibly gradual onset of the Minimum with reduced activity started two cycles before it. This revised scenario of the Maunder Minimum changes, through the paradigm for Grand solar/stellar activity minima, the observational constraint on the solar/stellar dynamo theories focused on long-term studies and occurrence of Grand minima.

Although it is well known that the solar acoustic mode frequency increases as the solar activity increases, the mechanism behind it is still unknown. Mode frequencies with 20 < l < 900 obtained by applying spherical harmonic decomposition to MDI full-disk observations were used. First, the dependence of solar acoustic mode frequency with solar activity was examined and evidence of a quadratic relation was found indicating a saturation effect at high solar activity. Then, the frequency dependence of frequency differences between the activity minimum and maximum was analyzed. The frequency shift scaled by the normalized mode inertia follows a simple power law where the exponent for the p modes decreases by 37% for modes with frequency larger than 2.5 mHz.

Sunspot numbers exhibit large short-timescale (daily-monthly) variation in addition to longer timescale variation due to solar cycles. A formal statistical framework is presented for estimating and forecasting randomness in sunspot numbers on top of deterministic (including chaotic) models for solar cycles. The Fokker-Planck approach formulated assumes a specified long-term or secular variation in sunspot number over an underlying solar cycle via a driver function. The model then describes the observed randomness in sunspot number on top of this driver function. We consider a simple harmonic choice for the driver function, but the approach is general and can easily be extended to include other drivers which account for underlying physical processes and/or empirical features of the sunspot numbers. The framework is consistent during both solar maximum and minimum, and requires no parameter restrictions to ensure non-negative sunspot numbers. Model parameters are estimated using statistically optimal techniques. The model agrees both qualitatively and quantitatively with monthly sunspot data even with the simplistic representation of the periodic solar cycle. This framework should be particularly useful for solar cycle forecasters and is complementary to existing modeling techniques. An analytic approximation for the Fokker-Planck equation is presented, which is analogous to the Euler approximation, which which allows for efficient maximum likelihood estimation of large data sets and/or when using difficult to evaluate driver functions.

The X2.2-class solar flare of February 15, 2011, produced a powerful `sunquake’ event, representing a seismic response to the flare impact. The impulsively excited seismic waves formed a compact wavepacket traveling through the solar interior and appeared on the surface as expanding wave ripples. The Helioseismic and Magnetic Imager (HMI), instrument on SDO, observes variations of intensity, magnetic field and plasma velocity (Dopplergrams) on the surface of Sun almost uninterruptedly with high resolution (0.5 arcsec/pixel) and high cadence (45 sec). The flare impact on the solar surface was observed in the form of compact and rapid variations of the HMI observables (Doppler velocity, line-of-sight magnetic field and continuum intensity). These variations, caused by the impact of high-energy particles in the photosphere, formed a typical two-ribbon flare structure. The sunquake can be easily seen in the raw Dopplergram differences without any special data processing. The source of this quake was located near the outer boundary of a very complicated complicated sunspot region, NOAA 1158, in a sunspot penumbra and at the penumbra boundary. This caused an interesting plasma dynamics in the impact region. I present some preliminary results of analysis of the near-real-time data from HMI, and discuss properties of the sunquake and the flare impact sources.

With the unique database from Michelson Doppler Imager aboard the Solar and Heliospheric Observatory in an interval embodying solar cycle 23, the cyclic behavior of solar small-scale magnetic elements is studied. More than 13 million small-scale magnetic elements are selected, and the following results are unclosed. (1) The quiet regions dominated the Sun’s magnetic flux for about 8 years in the 12.25 year duration of Cycle 23. They contributed (0.94 – 1.44) $\times 10^{23}$ Mx flux to the Sun from the solar minimum to maximum. The monthly average magnetic flux of the quiet regions is 1.12 times that of active regions in the cycle. (2) The ratio of quiet region flux to that of the total Sun equally characterizes the course of a solar cycle. The 6-month running-average flux ratio of quiet region had been larger than 90.0% for 28 continuous months from July 2007 to October 2009, which characterizes very well the grand solar minima of Cycles 23-24. (3) From the small to large end of the flux spectrum, the variations of numbers and total flux of the network elements show no-correlation, anti-correlation, and correlation with sunspots, respectively. The anti-correlated elements, covering the flux of (2.9 – 32.0)$\times 10^{18}$ Mx, occupies 77.2% of total element number and 37.4% of quiet Sun flux. These results provide insight into reason for anti-correlated variations of small-scale magnetic activity during the solar cycle.

With the unique database from Michelson Doppler Imager aboard the Solar and Heliospheric Observatory in an interval embodying solar cycle 23, the cyclic behavior of solar small-scale magnetic elements is studied. More than 13 million small-scale magnetic elements are selected, and the following results are unclosed. (1) The quiet regions dominated the Sun\textsf{‘}s magnetic flux for about 8 years in the 12.25 year duration of Cycle 23. They contributed (0.94 — 1.44) $\times 10^{23}$ Mx flux to the Sun from the solar minimum to maximum. The monthly average magnetic flux of the quiet regions is 1.12 times that of active regions in the cycle. (2) The ratio of quiet region flux to that of the total Sun equally characterizes the course of a solar cycle. The 6-month running-average flux ratio of quiet region had been larger than 90.0% for 28 continuous months from July 2007 to October 2009, which characterizes very well the grand solar minima of Cycles 23-24. (3) From the small to large end of the flux spectrum, the variations of numbers and total flux of the network elements show no-correlation, anti-correlation, and correlation with sunspots, respectively. The anti-correlated elements, covering the flux of (2.9 – 32.0)$\times 10^{18}$ Mx, occupies 77.2% of total element number and 37.4% of quiet Sun flux. These results provide insight into reason for anti-correlated variations of small-scale magnetic activity during the solar cycle.

We have used semi-synthetic records of emerging sunspot groups based on sunspot number data as input for a surface flux transport model to reconstruct the evolution of the large-scale solar magnetic field and the open heliospheric flux from the year 1700 onward. The statistical properties of the semi-synthetic sunspot group records reflect those of the observed the Royal Greenwich Observatory photoheliographic results. These include correlations between the sunspot numbers and sunspot group latitudes, longitudes, areas and tilt angles. The reconstruction results for the total surface flux, the polar field, and the heliospheric open flux (determined by a current sheet source surface extrapolation) agree well with the available observational or empirically derived data and reconstructions. We confirm a significant positive correlation between the polar field during activity minimum periods and the strength of the subsequent sunspot cycle, which has implications for flux transport dynamo models for the solar cycle. Just prior to the Dalton minimum, at the end of the 18th century, a long cycle was followed by a weak cycle. We find that introducing a possibly `lost’ cycle between 1793 and 1800 leads to a shift of the minimum of the open flux by 15 years which is inconsistent with the cosmogenic isotope record.

We use the historic record of sunspot groups compiled by the Royal Greenwich Observatory together with the sunspot number to derive the statistical properties of sunspot group emergence in dependence of cycle phase and strength. In particular we discuss the latitude, longitude, area and tilt angle of sunspot groups as functions of the cycle strength and of time during the solar cycle. Using these empirical characteristics the time-latitude diagram of sunspot group emergence (butterfly diagram) is reconstructed from 1700 onward on the basis of the Wolf and group sunspot numbers. This reconstruction will be useful in studies of the long-term evolution of the Sun’s magnetic field.

It was found out that the distribution’s shape of the in-ecliptic (as well as radial) component of the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) significantly changes with the heliocentric distance, which poorly corresponds to classical models of the solar wind and the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) expansion. For example, distributions of the radial photospheric and the source surface’s magnetic field in the ecliptic plane are Gaussian-like, the distribution of the radial IMF component at the Earth orbit demonstrates two-humped shape, and it becomes again Gaussian-like at 3-4 AU. These differences lead to lack of correspondence between simulations of the IMF behaviour at 1 AU and observations. Our results indicate that picture of the IMF expansion into space is more complicated than usually considered, and the sector structure is not the only source of the two-humped shape of the in-ecliptic or radial IMF component. We have analysed data from different spacecraft at the distances from 0.29 AU to 4 AU and found that the shape of the radial IMF component distribution strongly depends on a heliocentric distance and a heliolatitude. The “two-humped IMF” effect is most brightly expressed at low heliolatitudes at 0.7-2 AU, but it fully disappears at 3-4 AU. There is also dependence of the IMF distributions’ view on a solar cycle due to active processes, such as solar flares and CMEs. We suppose that the in-ecliptic solar wind field at 1 AU is influenced by solar active regions in a high degree, and actually the distribution is the three-humped: two humps correspond to the IMF from the middle and high heliolatitudes and the third one is the theoretically expected distribution from the solar field nearby the heliomagnetic equator. Vanishing of the IMF zero-component with the distance from the Sun partially could be a result of a magnetic reconnection at the current sheets in the solar wind.

It was found out that the distribution’s shape of the in-ecliptic (as well as radial) component of the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) significantly changes with the heliocentric distance, which poorly corresponds to classical models of the solar wind and the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) expansion. For example, distributions of the radial photospheric and the source surface’s magnetic field in the ecliptic plane are Gaussian-like, the distribution of the radial IMF component at the Earth orbit demonstrates two-humped shape, and it becomes again Gaussian-like at 3-4 AU. These differences lead to lack of correspondence between simulations of the IMF behaviour at 1 AU and observations. Our results indicate that picture of the IMF expansion into space is more complicated than usually considered, and the sector structure is not the only source of the two-humped shape of the in-ecliptic or radial IMF component. We have analysed data from different spacecraft at the distances from 0.29 AU to 4 AU and found that the shape of the radial IMF component distribution strongly depends on a heliocentric distance and a heliolatitude. The “two-humped IMF” effect is most brightly expressed at low heliolatitudes at 0.7-2 AU, but it fully disappears at 3-4 AU. There is also dependence of the IMF distributions’ view on a solar cycle due to active processes, such as solar flares and CMEs. We suppose that the in-ecliptic solar wind field at 1 AU is influenced by solar active regions in a high degree, and actually the distribution is the three-humped: two humps correspond to the IMF from the middle and high heliolatitudes and the third one is the theoretically expected distribution from the solar field nearby the heliomagnetic equator. Vanishing of the IMF zero-component with the distance from the Sun partially could be a result of a magnetic reconnection at the current sheets in the solar wind.

Stellar activity is a potential important limitation to the detection of low mass extrasolar planets with indirect methods (RV, photometry, astrometry). In previous papers, using the Sun as a proxy, we investigated the impact of stellar activity (spots, plages, convection) on the detectability of an Earth-mass planet in the habitable zone (HZ) of solar-type stars with RV techniques. We extend here the detectability study to the case of astrometry. We used the sunspot and plages properties recorded over one solar cycle to infer the astrometric variations that a Sun-like star seen edge-on, 10 pc away, would exhibit, if covered by such spots/bright structures. We compare the signal to the one expected from the astrometric wobble (0.3 {\mu}as) of such a star surrounded by a one Earth-mass planet in the HZ. We also briefly investigate higher levels of activity. The activity-induced astrometric signal along the equatorial plane has an amplitude of typ. less than 0.2 {\mu}as (rms=0.07 {\mu}as), smaller than the one expected from an Earth-mass planet at 1 AU. Hence, for this level of activity, the detectability is governed by the instrumental precision rather than the activity. We show that for instance a one Earth-mass planet at 1 AU would be detected with a monthly visit during less than 5 years and an instrumental precision of 0.8 {\mu}as. A level of activity 5 times higher would still allow such a detection with a precision of 0.35 {\mu}as. We conclude that astrometry is an attractive approach to search for such planets around solar type stars with most levels of stellar activity.

It is known that the so-called problem of solar power pacemaker related to possible existence of some hidden but key mechanism of energy influence of the Sun on fundamental geophysical processes is one of the principal and puzzling problems of modern climatology. The “tracks” of this mechanism have been shown up in different problems of solar-terrestrial physics for a long time and, in particular, in climatology, where the solar-climate variability is stably observed. However, the mechanisms by which small changes in the Sun’s energy (solar irradiance or insolation) output during the solar cycle can cause change in the weather and climate are still unknown. We analyze possible causes of the solar-climate variability concentrating one’s attention on the physical substantiation of strong correlation between the temporal variations of magnetic flux of the solar tachocline zone and the Earth magnetic field (Y-component). We propose an effective mechanism of solar dynamo-geodynamo connection which plays the role of the solar power pacemaker of the Earth global climate.

It is known that the so-called problem of solar power pacemaker related to possible existence of some hidden but key mechanism of energy influence of the Sun on fundamental geophysical processes is one of the principal and puzzling problems of modern climatology. The “tracks” of this mechanism have been shown up in different problems of solar-terrestrial physics for a long time and, in particular, in climatology, where the solar-climate variability is stably observed. However, the mechanisms by which small changes in the Sun’s energy (solar irradiance or insolation) output during the solar cycle can cause change in the weather and climate are still unknown. We analyze possible causes of the solar-climate variability concentrating one’s attention on the physical substantiation of strong correlation between the temporal variations of magnetic flux of the solar tachocline zone and the Earth magnetic field (Y-component). We propose an effective mechanism of solar dynamo-geodynamo connection which plays the role of the solar power pacemaker of the Earth global climate.

Multiple recent investigations of solar magnetic field measurements have raised claims that the scale-free (fractal) or multiscale (multifractal) parameters inferred from the studied magnetograms may help assess the eruptive potential of solar active regions, or may even help predict major flaring activity stemming from these regions. We investigate these claims here, by testing three widely used scale-free and multiscale parameters, namely, the fractal dimension, the multifractal structure function and its inertial-range exponent, and the turbulent power spectrum and its power-law index, on a comprehensive data set of 370 timeseries of active-region magnetograms (17,733 magnetograms in total) observed by SOHO’s Michelson Doppler Imager (MDI) over the entire Solar Cycle 23. We find that both flaring and non-flaring active regions exhibit significant fractality, multifractality, and non-Kolmogorov turbulence but none of the three tested parameters manages to distinguish active regions with major flares from flare-quiet ones. We also find that the multiscale parameters, but not the scale-free fractal dimension, depend sensitively on the spatial resolution and perhaps the observational characteristics of the studied magnetograms. Extending previous works, we attribute the flare-forecasting inability of fractal and multifractal parameters to i) a widespread multiscale complexity caused by a possible underlying self-organization in turbulent solar magnetic structures, flaring and non-flaring alike, and ii) a lack of correlation between the fractal properties of the photosphere and overlying layers, where solar eruptions occur. However useful for understanding solar magnetism, therefore, scale-free and multiscale measures may not be optimal tools for active-region characterization in terms of eruptive ability or, ultimately,for major solar-flare prediction.

A three dimensional (3D) tomographic reconstruction of the local differential emission measure (LDEM) of the global solar corona during the whole heliosphere interval (WHI, Carrington rotation CR-2068) is presented, based on STEREO/EUVI images. We determine the 3D distribution of the electron density, mean temperature, and temperature spread, in the range of heliocentric heights 1.03 to 1.23 Rsun. The reconstruction is complemented with a potential field source surface (PFSS) magnetic-field model. The streamer core, streamer legs, and subpolar regions are analyzed and compared to a similar analysis previously performed for CR-2077, very near the absolute minimum of the Solar Cycle 23. In each region, the typical values of density and temperature are similar in both periods. The WHI corona exhibits a streamer structure of relatively smaller volume and latitudinal extension than during CR-2077, with a global closed-to-open density contrast about 6% lower, and a somewhat more complex morphology. The average basal electron density is found to be about 2.23 and 1.08 x 10^8 cm^-3, in the streamer core and subpolar regions, respectively. The electron temperature is quite uniform over the analyzed height range, with average values of about 1.13 and 0.93 MK, in the streamer core and subpolar regions, respectively. Within the streamer closed region, both periods show higher temperatures at mid-latitudes and lower temperatures near the equator. Both periods show beta>1 in the streamer core and beta<1 in the surrounding open regions, with CR-2077 exhibiting a stronger contrast. Hydrostatic fits to the electron density are performed, and the scale height is compared to the LDEM mean electron temperature. Within the streamer core, the results are consistent with an isothermal hydrostatic plasma regime, with the temperatures of ions and electrons differing by up to about 10% .. (continues)..

A three dimensional (3D) tomographic reconstruction of the local differential emission measure (LDEM) of the global solar corona during the whole heliosphere interval (WHI, Carrington rotation CR-2068) is presented, based on STEREO/EUVI images. We determine the 3D distribution of the electron density, mean temperature, and temperature spread, in the range of heliocentric heights 1.03 to 1.23 Rsun. The reconstruction is complemented with a potential field source surface (PFSS) magnetic-field model. The streamer core, streamer legs, and subpolar regions are analyzed and compared to a similar analysis previously performed for CR-2077, very near the absolute minimum of the Solar Cycle 23. In each region, the typical values of density and temperature are similar in both periods. The WHI corona exhibits a streamer structure of relatively smaller volume and latitudinal extension than during CR-2077, with a global closed-to-open density contrast about 6% lower, and a somewhat more complex morphology. The average basal electron density is found to be about 2.23 and 1.08 x 10^8 cm^-3, in the streamer core and subpolar regions, respectively. The electron temperature is quite uniform over the analyzed height range, with average values of about 1.13 and 0.93 MK, in the streamer core and subpolar regions, respectively. Within the streamer closed region, both periods show higher temperatures at mid-latitudes and lower temperatures near the equator. Both periods show beta>1 in the streamer core and beta<1 in the surrounding open regions, with CR-2077 exhibiting a stronger contrast. Hydrostatic fits to the electron density are performed, and the scale height is compared to the LDEM mean electron temperature. Within the streamer core, the results are consistent with an isothermal hydrostatic plasma regime, with the temperatures of ions and electrons differing by up to about 10% .. (continues)..

From the previous study (Hiremath 2009b; Hiremath 2010), on the genesis of solar cycle and activity phenomena, it is understood that sunspots are formed at different depths by superposition of Alfven wave perturbations of a strong toroidal field structure in the convective envelope and after attaining a critical strength, due to buoyancy, raise toward the surface along the rotational isocontours that have positive (0.7-0.935 $R_{\odot}$) and negative (0.935-1.0 $R_{\odot}$) rotational gradients. Owing to physical conditions in these two rotational gradients, from the equation of magnetic induction, sunspot’s area growth and decay problem is solved separately. It is found that rate of growth of sunspot’s area during its evolution at different depths is function of steady and fluctuating parts of Lorentzian force of the ambient medium, fluctuations in meridional flow velocity, radial variation of rotational gradient and $cot(\vartheta)$ (where $\vartheta$ is co-latitude). While rate of decay of sunspot’s area at different depths during its evolution mainly depends upon magnetic diffusivity, rotational gradient and $sin^{2}(\vartheta)$. Gist of this study is that growth and decay of area of the sunspot mainly depends upon whether sunspot is originated in the region of either positive or negative rotational gradient. For different latitudes and life spans of the sunspots on the surface during their evolutionary history, both the analytically derived theoretical area growth and decay curves match reasonably well with the observed area growth and decay curves.

A review of solar cycle prediction methods and their performance is given, including forecasts for cycle 24 and focusing on aspects of the solar cycle prediction problem that have a bearing on dynamo theory. The scope of the review is further restricted to the issue of predicting the amplitude (and optionally the epoch) of an upcoming solar maximum no later than right after the start of the given cycle. Prediction methods form three main groups. Precursor methods rely on the value of some measure of solar activity or magnetism at a specified time to predict the amplitude of the following solar maximum. Their implicit assumption is that each numbered solar cycle is a consistent unit in itself, while solar activity seems to consist of a series of much less tightly intercorrelated individual cycles. Extrapolation methods, in contrast, are based on the premise that the physical process giving rise to the sunspot number record is statistically homogeneous, i.e., the mathematical regularities underlying its variations are the same at any point of time, and therefore it lends itself to analysis and forecasting by time series methods. Finally, instead of an analysis of observational data alone, model based predictions use physically (more or less) consistent dynamo models in their attempts to predict solar activity. In their overall performance precursor methods have clearly been superior to extrapolation methods. Nevertheless, some extrapolation methods may still be worth further study. Model based forecasts have not yet have had a chance to prove their skills. One method that has yielded predictions consistently in the right range during the past few solar cycles is that of K. Schatten et al., whose approach is mainly based on the polar field precursor. The incipient cycle 24 will probably mark the end of the Modern Maximum, with the Sun switching to a state of less strong activity.

A review of solar cycle prediction methods and their performance is given, including forecasts for cycle 24 and focusing on aspects of the solar cycle prediction problem that have a bearing on dynamo theory. The scope of the review is further restricted to the issue of predicting the amplitude (and optionally the epoch) of an upcoming solar maximum no later than right after the start of the given cycle. Prediction methods form three main groups. Precursor methods rely on the value of some measure of solar activity or magnetism at a specified time to predict the amplitude of the following solar maximum. Their implicit assumption is that each numbered solar cycle is a consistent unit in itself, while solar activity seems to consist of a series of much less tightly intercorrelated individual cycles. Extrapolation methods, in contrast, are based on the premise that the physical process giving rise to the sunspot number record is statistically homogeneous, i.e., the mathematical regularities underlying its variations are the same at any point of time, and therefore it lends itself to analysis and forecasting by time series methods. Finally, instead of an analysis of observational data alone, model based predictions use physically (more or less) consistent dynamo models in their attempts to predict solar activity. In their overall performance precursor methods have clearly been superior to extrapolation methods. Nevertheless, some extrapolation methods may still be worth further study. Model based forecasts have not yet have had a chance to prove their skills. One method that has yielded predictions consistently in the right range during the past few solar cycles is that of K. Schatten et al., whose approach is mainly based on the polar field precursor. The incipient cycle 24 will probably mark the end of the Modern Maximum, with the Sun switching to a state of less strong activity.

We study temporal variations in the amplitudes and widths of high-degree acoustic modes in the quiet and active Sun by applying ring-diagram technique to the GONG+ and MDI Dopplergrams during the declining phase of cycle 23. The increase in amplitudes and decrease in line-widths in the declining phase of the solar activity is in agreement with previous studies. A similar solar cycle trend in the mode parameters is also seen in the quiet-Sun regions but with a reduced magnitude. Moreover, the amplitudes obtained from GONG+ data show long-term variations on top of the solar cycle trend.

In addition to the well-known 11-year solar cycle, the Sun’s magnetic activity also shows significant variation on shorter time scales, e.g. between one and two years. We observe a quasi-biennial (2-year) signal in the solar p-mode oscillation frequencies, which are sensitive probes of the solar interior. The signal is visible in Sun-as-a-star data observed by different instruments and here we describe the results obtained using BiSON, GOLF, and VIRGO data. Our results imply that the 2-year signal is susceptible to the influence of the main 11-year solar cycle. However, the source of the signal appears to be separate from that of the 11-year cycle. We speculate as to whether it might be the signature of a second dynamo, located in the region of near-surface rotational shear.

The cumulative contribution of odd (Bo) and even (BE) parity zonal magnetic multipoles to the solar magnetic fields is calculated using spherical harmonic coefficients of the photospheric magnetic field for the years 1959-1985. The dominant parity of the solar magnetic field is shown to change from odd to even during every sunspot cycle. The association of variations of Bo and BE with different astrophysical phenomena such as magnetic reversal of solar polar magnetic fields, north-south asymmetry in sunspot activity and strength of the interplanetary magnetic field will be also discussed. Using solar observations we could infer that dominant parity of the solar magnetic field is changing from even to odd during the past 12 solar cycles when the solar activity is showing an increasing trend during this period.

The ability to predict the future behavior of solar activity has become of extreme importance due to its effect on the near Earth environment. Predictions of both the amplitude and timing of the next solar cycle will assist in estimating the various consequences of Space Weather. The level of solar activity is usually expressed by international sunspot number ($R_z$). Several prediction techniques have been applied and have achieved varying degrees of success in the domain of solar activity prediction. In this paper, we predict a solar index ($R_z$) in solar cycle 24 by using the neural network method. The neural network technique is used to analyze the time series of solar activity. According to our predictions of yearly sunspot number, the maximum of cycle 24 will occur in the year 2013 and will have an annual mean sunspot number of 65. Finally, we discuss our results in order to compare it with other suggested predictions.

Lightning activity on a global scale has been studied season wise using satellite data for the period from 1998 to 2009. Lightning activity shows an increasing trend during the period of study which is highly correlated with atmospheric warming. A similar increasing trend of lightning activity is observed in the Indian region during the pre-monsoon season which is correlated with global lightning trends and warming trends of surface temperature in India. Key words: Global warming, lightning activity, Solar cycle changes

The parameters of the p-mode oscillations vary with solar activity. Such temporal variations provide insights for the study of the structural and dynamical changes occurring in the Sun’s interior throughout the solar cycle. We present here a complete picture of the temporal variations of the global p-mode parameters (excitation, damping, frequency, peak asymmetry, and rotational splitting) over the entire solar cycle 23 and the beginning of cycle 24 as observed by the space-based, Sun-as-a-star helioseismic GOLF and VIRGO instruments onboard SoHO.

We propose a solar dynamo model distributed in the bulk of the convection zone with the toroidal magnetic field the flux concentrated in the near-surface layer. We show that if the boundary conditions at the top of the dynamo region allow the large-scale toroidal magnetic fields to penetrate closer to the surface, then the pattern of the modeled butterfly diagram for the toroidal magnetic fields in the upper part of the convection zone is formed by the surface rotational shear layer. The model is in agreement with observed properties of the magnetic solar cycle.

We propose a solar dynamo model distributed in the bulk of the convection zone with the toroidal magnetic field the flux concentrated in the near-surface layer. We show that if the boundary conditions at the top of the dynamo region allow the large-scale toroidal magnetic fields to penetrate closer to the surface, then the pattern of the modeled butterfly diagram for the toroidal magnetic fields in the upper part of the convection zone is formed by the surface rotational shear layer. The model is in agreement with observed properties of the magnetic solar cycle.

It is well known that in the Sun, the frequencies and amplitudes of acoustic modes vary throughout the solar cycle. Indeed, while the magnetic activity goes towards its maximum, the frequencies of the modes increase and their amplitudes decrease. We have analyzed data from the CoRoT mission on a few stars that exhibit solar-like oscillations. The study of HD49933 (observed during 60 days and 137 days spanning a total of 400 days) showed a modulation of the maximum amplitude per radial mode and the frequency shifts of the modes, showing magnetic activity in this rapidly rotating star. Moreover, both properties vary in an anticorrelated way and the data allowed us to establish a lower limit for the activity-cycle period of ~120 days. Measurements in Ca H and K lines confirmed that this star is in the “active stars” category. We will also discuss the results obtained for other targets such as HD181420 and HD49835 for which we have investigated a similar behavior.

Phoswich detectors (RT-2/S & RT-2/G) are major scientific payloads of the RT-2 Experiment onboard the CORONAS-PHOTON mission, which was launched into a polar Low Earth Orbit of around 550 km on 2009 January 30. These RT-2 instruments are designed and developed to observe solar flares in hard X-rays and to understand the energy transport processes associated with these flares. Apart from this, these instruments are capable of observing Gamma Ray Bursts (GRBs) and Cosmic diffuse X-ray background (CDXRB). Both detectors consist of identical NaI(Tl) and CsI(Na) scintillation crystals in a Phoswich combination, having the same diameter (116 mm) but different thicknesses. The normal working energy range is from 15 keV to 150 keV, but may be extendable up to ~ 1 MeV. In this paper, we present the RT-2/S and RT-2/G instruments and discuss their testing and calibration results. We used different radio-active sources to calibrate both detectors. The radio-active source Co^57 (122 keV) is used for onboard calibration of both instruments. During its lifetime (~ 3-5 years), RT-2 is expected to cover the peak of the 24th solar cycle.

Based on analysis of the annual averaged relative sunspot number (ASN) during 1700 — 2009, 3 kinds of solar cycles are confirmed: the well-known 11-yr cycle (Schwabe cycle), 103-yr secular cycle (numbered as G1, G2, G3, and G4, respectively since 1700); and 51.5-yr Cycle. From similarities, an extrapolation of forthcoming solar cycles is made, and found that the solar cycle 24 will be a relative long and weak Schwabe cycle, which may reach to its apex around 2012-2014 in the vale between G3 and G4. Additionally, most Schwabe cycles are asymmetric with rapidly rising-phases and slowly decay-phases. The comparisons between ASN and the annual flare numbers with different GOES classes (C-class, M-class, X-class, and super-flare, here super-flare is defined as $\geq$ X10.0) and the annal averaged radio flux at frequency of 2.84 GHz indicate that solar flares have a tendency: the more powerful of the flare, the later it takes place after the onset of the Schwabe cycle, and most powerful flares take place in the decay phase of Schwabe cycle. Some discussions on the origin of solar cycles are presented.

The subject of this paper is the existence and stability of solar cycles with durations in the range of 20-250 years. Five types of data series are used: 1) The Zurich series (1749-2009 AD), the mean annual International sunspot number Ri, 2) The Group sunspot number series Rh (1610-1995 AD), 3) The simulated extended sunspot Rsi number from Extended time series of Solar Activity Indices (ESAI) (1090-2002 AD), 4) The simulated extended geomagnetic aa-index from ESAI (1099-2002 AD), 5) The Meudon filament series (1919-1991 AD) (it is used only particularly). Data series are smoothed over 11 years and supercenturial trends are removed. Two principally independent methods of time series analysis are used: the T-R periodogram analysis (both in the standard and “scanning window” regimes) and the wavelet-analysis. The obtained results are very similar. It is found that in all series a strong cycle with mean duration of 55-60 years exists. It is very well expressed in the 18th and the 19th centuries. It is less pronounced during the end of the 19th and the beginning of the 20th centuries. On the other hand a strong and stable quasi 110-120 years and ~200-year cycles are obtained in all of these series except in Ri. In the last series a strong mean oscillation of ~ 95 years is found, which is absent in the other data sets. The analysis of the ESAI (1090-2002 AD) proved that the quasi century cycle has a relatively stable doublet (~80 and ~120 years) or triplet (~55-60, 80 and 120 years) structure during the last ~900 years. An interesting feature in all series is the existence of significant ~29-year cycle after the last centurial Gleissberg-Gnevishev’s minimum (1898-1923 AD). Most probably the different types of oscillations in the sub-century and century period range correspond to cycles of different classes of active regions.

The subject of this paper is the existence and stability of solar cycles with durations in the range of 20-250 years. Five types of data series are used: 1) The Zurich series (1749-2009 AD), the mean annual International sunspot number Ri, 2) The Group sunspot number series Rh (1610-1995 AD), 3) The simulated extended sunspot Rsi number from Extended time series of Solar Activity Indices (ESAI) (1090-2002 AD), 4) The simulated extended geomagnetic aa-index from ESAI (1099-2002 AD), 5) The Meudon filament series (1919-1991 AD) (it is used only particularly). Data series are smoothed over 11 years and supercenturial trends are removed. Two principally independent methods of time series analysis are used: the T-R periodogram analysis (both in the standard and “scanning window” regimes) and the wavelet-analysis. The obtained results are very similar. It is found that in all series a strong cycle with mean duration of 55-60 years exists. It is very well expressed in the 18th and the 19th centuries. It is less pronounced during the end of the 19th and the beginning of the 20th centuries. On the other hand a strong and stable quasi 110-120 years and ~200-year cycles are obtained in all of these series except in Ri. In the last series a strong mean oscillation of ~ 95 years is found, which is absent in the other data sets. The analysis of the ESAI (1090-2002 AD) proved that the quasi century cycle has a relatively stable doublet (~80 and ~120 years) or triplet (~55-60, 80 and 120 years) structure during the last ~900 years. An interesting feature in all series is the existence of significant ~29-year cycle after the last centurial Gleissberg-Gnevishev’s minimum (1898-1923 AD). Most probably the different types of oscillations in the sub-century and century period range correspond to cycles of different classes of active regions.

We present a study comparing the energy carried away by a coronal mass ejection (CME) and the radiative energy loss in associated flare plasma, with the decrease in magnetic free energy during a release in active region NOAA 10930 on December 13, 2006 during the declining phase of the solar cycle 23. The ejected CME was fast and directed towards the Earth with a projected speed of 1780 km/s and a de-projected speed of 3060 km/s. We regard these as lower and upper limits for our calculations. It was accompanied by an X3.4 class flare in the active region. The CME carried (1.2-4.5)x10^32 erg (projected-deprojected) of kinetic and gravitational potential energy. The estimated radiative energy loss during the flare was found to be 9.0×10^30 erg. The sum of these energies was compared with the decrease in measured free magnetic energy during the flare/CME. The free energy is that above the minimum energy configuration and was estimated using the magnetic virial theorem. The estimated decrease in magnetic free energy is large, 3.11×10^32 erg after the flare/CME compared to the pre-flare energy. Given the range of possible energies we estimate that 50-100% of the CME energy arose from the active region. The rest of the free magnetic energy was distributed among the radiative energy loss, particle acceleration, plasma and magnetic field reorientation.

In addition to the `facular’ brightening of active regions, the quiet Sun also contains a small scale magnetic field with associated brightenings in continuum radiation. We measure this contribution of quiet regions to the Sun’s brightness from high spatial resolution (0″16-0″32) observations of the Swedish 1-m Solar Telescope (SST) and Hinode satellite. The line-of-sight magnetic field and continuum intensity near \ion{Fe}{i} 6302.5 \AA\ are used to quantify the correlation between field strength and brightness. The data show that magnetic flux density contains a significant amount of intrinsically weak fields that contribute little to brightness. We show that with data of high spatial resolution a calibration of magnetic flux density as a proxy for brightness excess is possible. In the SST data, the magnetic brightening of a quiet region with an average (unsigned) flux density of 10 G is about 0.15%. In the Hinode data, and in SST data reduced to Hinode resolution, the measured brightening is some 40% lower. With appropriate correction for resolution, magnetic flux density can be used as a reliable proxy in regions of small scale mixed polarity. The measured brightness effect is larger than the variation of irradiance over a solar cycle. It is not clear, however, if this quiet Sun contribution actually varies significantly. \keywords{Sun: surface magnetism — photosphere — solar-terrestrial relations}

In addition to the `facular’ brightening of active regions, the quiet Sun also contains a small scale magnetic field with associated brightenings in continuum radiation. We measure this contribution of quiet regions to the Sun’s brightness from high spatial resolution (0″16-0″32) observations of the Swedish 1-m Solar Telescope (SST) and Hinode satellite. The line-of-sight magnetic field and continuum intensity near \ion{Fe}{i} 6302.5 \AA\ are used to quantify the correlation between field strength and brightness. The data show that magnetic flux density contains a significant amount of intrinsically weak fields that contribute little to brightness. We show that with data of high spatial resolution a calibration of magnetic flux density as a proxy for brightness excess is possible. In the SST data, the magnetic brightening of a quiet region with an average (unsigned) flux density of 10 G is about 0.15%. In the Hinode data, and in SST data reduced to Hinode resolution, the measured brightening is some 40% lower. With appropriate correction for resolution, magnetic flux density can be used as a reliable proxy in regions of small scale mixed polarity. The measured brightness effect is larger than the variation of irradiance over a solar cycle. It is not clear, however, if this quiet Sun contribution actually varies significantly. \keywords{Sun: surface magnetism — photosphere — solar-terrestrial relations}

Context: In addition to the `facular’ brightening of active regions, the quiet Sun also contains a small scale magnetic field with associated brightenings in continuum radiation. Aims: To measure the contribution of quiet regions to the Sun’s brightness, and their possible effect on variations in solar irradiance. Methods: High spatial resolution (0.16″-0.32″) observations from the Swedish Solar Telescope (SST) and Hinode satellite of the line-of-sight magnetic field and continuum intensity near FeI 6302.5 \AA\ are used to accurately measure the correlation between field strength and brightness. A detailed model to fit this correlation is developed and applied to calibrate magnetic flux density as a proxy for brightness excess. Results: In the SST data, the magnetic brightening of a quiet region with an average (unsigned) flux density of 10 G is about 0.15%. The measurement depends on spatial resolution: in the Hinode data, and in SST data reduced to Hinode resolution, the measured brightening is almost a factor 2 lower. Conclusions: The measured brightness effect is larger than the variation of irradiance over a solar cycle. It is not clear, however, if it constitutes a significant contribution to variation of irradiance.

We measure the axisymmetric transport of magnetic flux on the Sun by cross-correlating narrow strips of data from line-of-sight magnetograms obtained at a 96-minute cadence by the MDI instrument on the ESA/NASA SOHO spacecraft and then averaging the flow measurements over each synodic rotation of the Sun. Our measurements indicate that the axisymmetric flows vary systematically over the solar cycle. The differential rotation is weaker at maximum than at minimum. The meridional flow is faster at minimum and slower at maximum. The meridional flow speed on the approach to the Cycle 23/24 minimum was substantially faster than it was at the Cycle 22/23 minimum. The average latitudinal profile is largely a simple sinusoid that extends to the poles and peaks at about $35\degr$ latitude. As the cycle progresses a pattern of in-flows toward the sunspot zones develops and moves equatorward in step with the sunspot zones. These in-flows are accompanied by the torsional oscillations. This association is consistent with the effects of the Coriolis force acting on the in-flows. The equatorward motions associated with these in-flows are identified as the source of the decrease in net poleward flow at cycle maxima. We also find polar counter-cells (equatorward flow at high latitudes) in the south from 1996 to 2000 and in the north from 2002 to 2010. We show that these measurements of the flows are not affected by the non-axisymmetric diffusive motions produced by supergranulation.

We measure the axisymmetric transport of magnetic flux on the Sun by cross-correlating narrow strips of data from line-of-sight magnetograms obtained at a 96-minute cadence by the MDI instrument on the ESA/NASA SOHO spacecraft and then averaging the flow measurements over each synodic rotation of the Sun. Our measurements indicate that the axisymmetric flows vary systematically over the solar cycle. The differential rotation is weaker at maximum than at minimum. The meridional flow is faster at minimum and slower at maximum. The meridional flow speed on the approach to the Cycle 23/24 minimum was substantially faster than it was at the Cycle 22/23 minimum. The average latitudinal profile is largely a simple sinusoid that extends to the poles and peaks at about $35\degr$ latitude. As the cycle progresses a pattern of in-flows toward the sunspot zones develops and moves equatorward in step with the sunspot zones. These in-flows are accompanied by the torsional oscillations. This association is consistent with the effects of the Coriolis force acting on the in-flows. The equatorward motions associated with these in-flows are identified as the source of the decrease in net poleward flow at cycle maxima. We also find polar counter-cells (equatorward flow at high latitudes) in the south from 1996 to 2000 and in the north from 2002 to 2010. We show that these measurements of the flows are not affected by the non-axisymmetric diffusive motions produced by supergranulation.

The observed powerlaw distributions of solar flare parameters can be interpreted in terms of a nonlinear dissipative system in the state of self-organized criticality (SOC). We present a universal analytical model of a SOC process that is governed by three conditions: (i) a multiplicative or exponential growth phase, (ii) a randomly interrupted termination of the growth phase, and (iii) a linear decay phase. This basic concept approximately reproduces the observed frequency distributions. We generalize it to a randomized exponential-growth model, which includes also a (log-normal) distribution of threshold energies before the instability starts, as well as randomized decay times, which can reproduce both the observed occurrence frequency distributions and the scatter of correlated parametyers more realistically. With this analytical model we can efficiently perform Monte-Carlo simulations of frequency distributions and parameter correlations of SOC processes, which are simpler and faster than the iterative simulations of cellular automaton models. Solar cycle modulations of the powerlaw slopes of flare frequency distributions can be used to diagnose the thresholds and growth rates of magnetic instabilities responsible for solar flares.

The observed powerlaw distributions of solar flare parameters can be interpreted in terms of a nonlinear dissipative system in the state of self-organized criticality (SOC). We present a universal analytical model of a SOC process that is governed by three conditions: (i) a multiplicative or exponential growth phase, (ii) a randomly interrupted termination of the growth phase, and (iii) a linear decay phase. This basic concept approximately reproduces the observed frequency distributions. We generalize it to a randomized exponential-growth model, which includes also a (log-normal) distribution of threshold energies before the instability starts, as well as randomized decay times, which can reproduce both the observed occurrence frequency distributions and the scatter of correlated parametyers more realistically. With this analytical model we can efficiently perform Monte-Carlo simulations of frequency distributions and parameter correlations of SOC processes, which are simpler and faster than the iterative simulations of cellular automaton models. Solar cycle modulations of the powerlaw slopes of flare frequency distributions can be used to diagnose the thresholds and growth rates of magnetic instabilities responsible for solar flares.

We study the influence of various magnetic diffusivity profiles on the evolution of the poloidal and toroidal magnetic fields in a kinematic flux transport dynamo model for the Sun. The diffusivity is a poorly understood ingredient in solar dynamo models. We mathematically construct various theoretical profiles of the depth-dependent diffusivity, based on constraints from mixing length theory and turbulence, and on comparisons of poloidal field evolution on the Sun with that from the flux-transport dynamo model. We then study the effect of each diffusivity profile in the cyclic evolution of the magnetic fields in the Sun, by solving the mean-field dynamo equations. We investigate effects on the solar cycle periods, the maximum tachocline field strengths, and the evolution of the toroidal and poloidal field structures inside the convection zone, due to different diffusivity profiles. We conduct three experiments: (I) comparing very different magnetic diffusivity profiles; (II) comparing different locations of diffusivity gradient near the tachocline for the optimal profile; and (III) comparing different slopes of diffusivity gradient for an optimal profile. Based on these simulations, we discuss which aspects of depth-dependent diffusivity profiles may be most relevant for magnetic flux evolution in the Sun, and how certain observations could help improve knowledge of this dynamo ingredient.

We investigate the phase difference of the sunspot cycles in the two hemispheres and compare it with the latitudinal sunspot distribution. If the north-south phase difference exhibits a long-term tendency, it should not be regarded as a stochastic phenomenon. We use datasets of historical sunspot records and drawings made by Staudacher, Hamilton, Gimingham, Carrington, Spouml;rer, and Greenwich observers, as well as the sunspot activity during the Maunder minimum reconstructed by Ribes and Nesme-Ribes. We employ cross-recurrence plots to analyse north-south phase differences. We show that during the last 300 years, the persistence of phase-leading in one of the hemispheres exhibits a secular variation. Changes from one hemisphere to the other leading in phase were registered near 1928 and 1968 as well as two historical ones near 1783 and 1875. A long-term anticorrelation between the hemispheric phase differences in the sunspot cycles and the latitudinal distribution of sunspots was traced since 1750.

The automated detection of solar features is a technique which is relatively underused but if we are to keep up with the flow of data from spacecraft such as the recently launched Solar Dynamics Observatory, then such techniques will be very valuable to the solar community. Automated detection techniques allow us to examine a large set of data in a consistent way and in relatively short periods of time allowing for improved statistics to be carried out on any results obtained. This is particularly useful in the field of sunspot study as catalogues can be built with sunspots detected and tracked without any human intervention and this provides us with a detailed account of how various sunspot properties evolve over time. This article details the use of the Sunspot Tracking And Recognition Algorithm (STARA) to create a sunspot catalogue. This catalogue is then used to analyse the magnetic fields in sunspot umbrae from 1996-2010, taking in the whole of solar cycle 23.

Helicity measures complexity in the field. Magnetic helicity is given by a volume integral over the scalar product of magnetic field {\bf B} and its vector potential {\bf A}. A direct computation of magnetic helicity in the solar atmosphere is not possible due to unavailability of the observations at different heights and also due to non-uniqueness of {\bf A}. The force-free parameter $\alpha$ has been used as a proxy of magnetic helicity for a long time. We have clarified the physical meaning of $\alpha$ and its relationship with the magnetic helicity. We have studied the effect of polarimetric noise on estimation of various magnetic parameters. Fine structures of sunspots in terms of vertical current ($J_z$) and $\alpha$ have been examined. We have introduced the concept of signed shear angle (SSA) for sunspots and established its importance for non force-free fields. We find that there is no net current in sunspots even in presence of a significant twist, showing consistency with their fibril-bundle nature. The finding of existence of a lower limit of SASSA for a given class of X-ray flare will be very useful for space weather forecasting. A good correlation is found between the sign of helicity in the sunspots and the chirality of the associated chromospheric and coronal features. We find that a large number of sunspots observed in the declining phase of solar cycle 23 do not follow the hemispheric helicity rule whereas most of the sunspots observed in the beginning of new solar cycle 24 do follow. This indicates a long term behaviour of the hemispheric helicity patterns in the Sun. The above sums up my PhD thesis.

In this paper we analyze the behavior of the daily Sunspot Number from the Sunspot Index Data Center (SIDC), the mean Magnetic Field strength from the National Solar Observatory/Kitt Peak (NSO/KP) and Total Solar Irradiance means from Virgo/SoHO, in the context of the $q$–Triplet which emerges within nonextensive statistical mechanics. Distributions for the mean solar Magnetic Field show two different behaviors, with a $q$–Gaussian for scales of 1 to 16 days and a Gaussian for scales longer than 32 days. The latter corresponds to an equilibrium state. Distributions for Total Solar Irradiance also show two different behaviors (approximately Gaussian) for scales of 128 days and longer, consistent with statistical equilibrium and $q$–Gaussian for scales $<$ 128 days. Distributions for the Sunspot Number show a $q$–Gaussian independent of timescales, consistent with a nonequilibrium state. The values obtained ("$q$–Triplet"$\equiv$$\{$$q$$_{stat}$,$q$$_{sen}$,$q$$_{rel}$$\}$) demonstrate that the Gaussian or $q$–Gaussian behavior of the aforementioned data depends significantly on timescales. These results point to strong multifractal behavior of the dataset analyzed, with the multifractal level decreasing from Sunspot Number to Total Solar Irradiance. In addition, we found a numerically satisfied dual relation between $q_{stat}$ and $q_{sen}$.

We present a statistical study of dynamical and kinetic characteristics of CMEs which show temporal and spatial association with flares and type II radio bursts or complex radio events of type II bursts and type IV continua. This study is based on a set of earth-directed full halo CMEs occurring during the present solar cycle, with data from the Large Angle Spectrometric Coronagraphs (LASCO) and Extreme-Ultraviolet Imaging Telescope (EIT) aboard the Solar and Heliospheric Observatory (SOHO) mission and the Magnetic Fields Investigation (MFI) and 3-D Plasma and Energetic Particle Analyzer Investigation experiment on board the WIND spacecraft.

Although the energetic phenomena of the Sun (flares, coronal mass injections etc.) exhibit intermittent stochastic behavior in their rate of occurrence, they are well correlated to the variations of the solar cycle. In this work we study the spatial and temporal characteristics of transient solar activity in an attempt to statistically interpret the evolution of these phenomena through the solar cycle, in terms of the self-organized criticality theory.

The short-term periodicities of the daily sunspot area fluctuations from August 1923 to October 1933 are discussed. For these data the correlative analysis indicates negative correlation for the periodicity of about 155 days, but the power spectrum analysis indicates a statistically significant peak in this time interval. A new method of the diagnosis of an echo-effect in spectrum is proposed and it is stated that the 155-day periodicity is a harmonic of the periodicities from the interval of [400,500] days. The autocorrelation functions for the daily sunspot area fluctuations and for the fluctuations of the one rotation time interval in the northern hemisphere, separately for the whole solar cycle 16 and for the maximum activity period of this cycle do not show differences, especially in the interval of [57, 173] days. It proves against the thesis of the existence of strong positive fluctuations of the about 155-day interval in the maximum activity period of the solar cycle 16 in the northern hemisphere. However, a similar analysis for data from the southern hemisphere indicates that there is the periodicity of about 155 days in sunspot area data in the maximum activity period of the cycle 16 only.

Meridional circulation is an important ingredient in flux transport dynamo models. We have studied its importance on the period, the amplitude of the solar cycle, and also in producing Maunder-like grand minima in these models. First, we model the periods of the last 23 sunspot cycles by varying the meridional circulation speed. If the dynamo is in a diffusion-dominated regime, then we find that most of the cycle amplitudes also get modeled up to some extent when we model the periods. Next, we propose that at the beginning of the Maunder minimum the amplitude of meridional circulation dropped to a low value and then after a few years it increased again. Several independent studies also favor this assumption. With this assumption, a diffusion-dominated dynamo is able to reproduce many important features of the Maunder minimum remarkably well. If the dynamo is in a diffusion-dominated regime, then a slower meridional circulation means that the poloidal field gets more time to diffuse during its transport through the convection zone, making the dynamo weaker. This consequence helps to model both the cycle amplitudes and the Maunder-like minima. We, however, fail to reproduce these results if the dynamo is in an advection-dominated regime.

Meridional circulation is an important ingredient in flux transport dynamo model. We have studied its importance on the period, amplitude of solar cycle and also on producing Maunder-like grand minima in this model. First, we model the periods of last 23 sunspot cycles by varying the meridional circulation speed. We find that most of the cycle amplitudes also get modeled up to some extent when the dynamo is in diffusion-dominated regime. Next, we propose that at the beginning of the Maunder minimum the amplitude of meridional circulation dropped to a low value and then after a few years it increased again. Several independent studies also favor this assumption. With this assumption, a diffusion-dominated dynamo is able to reproduce many important features of Maunder minimum remarkably well. If the dynamo is in diffusion-dominated regime, then the slower meridional circulation means that the poloidal field gets more time to diffuse away from the tachocline, making the dynamo weaker. This consequence helps to model both cycle amplitudes and Maunder-like minima. We, however, do not get all these results if the dynamo is in advection-dominated regime.

Independent of the normal solar cycle, a decrease in the sunspot magnetic field strength has been observed using the Zeeman-split 1564.8nm Fe I spectral line at the NSO Kitt Peak McMath-Pierce telescope. Corresponding changes in sunspot brightness and the strength of molecular absorption lines were also seen. This trend was seen to continue in observations of the first sunspots of the new solar Cycle 24, and extrapolating a linear fit to this trend would lead to only half the number of spots in Cycle 24 compared to Cycle 23, and imply virtually no sunspots in Cycle 25. We examined synoptic observations from the NSO Kitt Peak Vacuum Telescope and initially (with 4000 spots) found a change in sunspot brightness which roughly agreed with the infrared observations. A more detailed examination (with 13,000 spots) of both spot brightness and line-of-sight magnetic flux reveals that the relationship of the sunspot magnetic fields with spot brightness and size remain constant during the solar cycle. There are only small temporal variations in the spot brightness, size, and line-of-sight flux seen in this larger sample. Because of the apparent disagreement between the two data sets, we discuss how the infrared spectral line provides a uniquely direct measurement of the magnetic fields in sunspots.

Our understanding of the structure and dynamics of stellar coronae has changed dramatically with the availability of surface maps of both star spots and also magnetic field vectors. Magnetic field extrapolations from these surface maps reveal surprising coronal structures for stars whose masses and hence internal structures and dynamo modes may be very different from that of the Sun. Crucial factors are the fraction of open magnetic flux (which determines the spin-down rate for the star as it ages) and the location and plasma density of closed-field regions, which determine the X-ray and radio emission properties. There has been recent progress in modelling stellar coronae, in particular the relative contributions of the field detected in the bright surface regions and the field that may be hidden in the dark star spots. For the Sun, the relationship between the field in the spots and the large scale field is well studied over the solar cycle. It appears, however, that other stars can show a very different relationship.

The study concerns the streamer belt observed at high spectral resolution during the minimum of solar cycle 22 with the Ultraviolet Coronagraph Spectrometer (UVCS) onboard SOHO. On the basis of a spectroscopic analysis of the O VI doublet, the solar wind plasma parameters are inferred in the extended corona. The analysis accounts for the coronal magnetic topology, extrapolated through a 3D magneto-hydrodynamic model, in order to define the streamer boundary and to analyse the edges of coronal holes. The results of the analysis allow an accurate identification of the source regions of the slow coronal wind that are confirmed to be along the streamer boundary in the open magnetic field region.

The study concerns the streamer belt observed at high spectral resolution during the minimum of solar cycle 22 with the Ultraviolet Coronagraph Spectrometer (UVCS) onboard SOHO. On the basis of a spectroscopic analysis of the O VI doublet, the solar wind plasma parameters are inferred in the extended corona. The analysis accounts for the coronal magnetic topology, extrapolated through a 3D magneto-hydrodynamic model, in order to define the streamer boundary and to analyse the edges of coronal holes. The results of the analysis allow an accurate identification of the source regions of the slow coronal wind that are confirmed to be along the streamer boundary in the open magnetic field region.

The LASCO coronagraphs, in continuous operation since 1995, have observed the evolution of the solar corona and coronal mass ejections (CMEs) over a full solar cycle with high quality images and regular cadence. This is the first time that such a dataset becomes available and constitutes a unique resource for the study of CMEs. In this paper, we present a comprehensive investigation of the solar cycle dependence on the CME mass and energy over a full solar cycle (1996-2009) including the first in-depth discussion of the mass and energy analysis methods and their associated errors. Our analysis provides several results worthy of further studies. It demonstrates the possible existence of two event classes; ‘normal’ CMEs reaching constant mass for $>10$ R$_{\sun}$ and ‘pseudo’ CMEs which disappear in the C3 FOV. It shows that the mass and energy properties of CME reach constant levels, and therefore should be measured, only above $\sim 10 R_\sun$. The mass density ($g/R_\sun^2$) of CMEs varies relatively little ($<$ order of magnitude) suggesting that the majority of the mass originates from a small range in coronal heights. We find a sudden reduction in the CME mass in mid-2003 which may be related to a change in the electron content of the large scale corona and we uncover the presence of a six-month periodicity in the ejected mass from 2003 onwards.

The maximum amplitude (Rm) of a solar cycle, in the term of mean sunspot numbers, is well-known to be positively correlated with the preceding minimum (Rmin). So far as the long term trend is concerned, a low level of Rmin tends to be followed by a weak Rm, and vice versa. In this paper, we found that the evidence is insufficient to infer a very weak Cycle 24 from the very low Rmin in the preceding cycle. This is concluded by analyzing the correlation in the temporal variations of parameters for two successive cycles.

The most promising model for explaining the origin of solar magnetism is the flux transport dynamo model, in which the toroidal field is produced by differential rotation in the tachocline, the poloidal field is produced by the Babcock–Leighton mechanism at the solar surface and the meridional circulation plays a crucial role. After discussing how this model explains the regular periodic features of the solar cycle, we come to the questions of what causes irregularities of solar cycles and whether we can predict future cycles. Only if the diffusivity within the convection zone is sufficiently high, the polar field at the sunspot minimum is correlated with strength of the next cycle. This is in conformity with the limited available observational data.

The most promising model for explaining the origin of solar magnetism is the flux transport dynamo model, in which the toroidal field is produced by differential rotation in the tachocline, the poloidal field is produced by the Babcock–Leighton mechanism at the solar surface and the meridional circulation plays a crucial role. After discussing how this model explains the regular periodic features of the solar cycle, we come to the questions of what causes irregularities of solar cycles and whether we can predict future cycles. Only if the diffusivity within the convection zone is sufficiently high, the polar field at the sunspot minimum is correlated with strength of the next cycle. This is in conformity with the limited available observational data.

The minimum of solar cycle 24 is significantly different from most other minima in terms of its duration as well as its abnormally low levels of activity. Using available helioseismic data that cover epochs from the minimum of cycle 23 to now, we study the differences in the nature of the solar rotation between the minima of cycles 23 and 24. We find that there are significant differences between the rotation rates during the two minima. There are differences in the zonal-flow pattern too. We find that the band of fast rotating region close to the equator bifurcated around 2005 and recombined by 2008. This behavior is different from that during the cycle 23 minimum. By auto-correlating the zonal-flow pattern with a time shift, we find that in terms of solar dynamics, solar cycle 23 lasted for a period of 11.7 years, consistent with the result of Howe et al. (2009). The autocorrelation coefficient also confirms that the zonal-flow pattern penetrates through the convection zone.

The minimum of solar cycle 24 is significantly different from most other minima in terms of its duration as well as its abnormally low levels of activity. Using available helioseismic data that cover epochs from the minimum of cycle 23 to now, we study the differences in the nature of the solar rotation between the minima of cycles 23 and 24. We find that there are significant differences between the rotation rates during the two minima. There are differences in the zonal-flow pattern too. We find that the band of fast rotating region close to the equator bifurcated around 2005 and recombined by 2008. This behavior is different from that during the cycle 23 minimum. By auto-correlating the zonal-flow pattern with a time shift, we find that in terms of solar dynamics, solar cycle 23 lasted for a period of 11.7 years, consistent with the result of Howe et al. (2009). The autocorrelation coefficient also confirms that the zonal-flow pattern penetrates through the convection zone.

The main purpose of this study is the determination of solar minimum date of the new sunspot cycle No 24. It is provided by using of four types of mean daily data values for the period Jan 01. 2006 – Dec 31. 2009: (1) the solar radioindex F10.7; (2) the International sunspot number Ri; (3) the total solar irradiance index (TSI), and (4) the daily number of X-ray flares of classes from "B" to "X" from the soft X-ray GOES satellite channel (0.1 – 0.8 nm). It is found that the mean starting moment of the upward solar activity tendency (the mean solar minimum) is Nov. 06th, 2008. So, the solar cycle No 23 length is estimated to ~12.6 years. A conclusion for a relatively weak general magnitude of solar cycle No 24 is made. By using of relationship based on the "Waldmeier’s rule" a near maximal mean yearly sunspot number value of 72 \pm 27 has been determined.

Digitized images of full disk CaK spectroheliograms from two solar observatories were used to study cycle variation of ephemeral regions (ERs) over ten solar cycles 14-23. We calculate monthly averaged unsigned latitude of ERs and compare it with annual sunspot number. We find that average latitude of ERs can be used as a predictor for strength of solar cycle. For a short-term prediction (dT about 1-2 years), maximum latitude of ephemeral regions (in current cycle) defines the amplitude of that cycle (higher is the latitude of ERs, larger are the amplitudes of sunspot cycle). For a long-term prediction (dT about 1.5 solar cycles), latitude of ERs at declining phase of n-th cycle determines the amplitude of (n+2)-th sunspot cycle (lower is the latitude of ERs, stronger is the cycle). Using this latter dependency, we forecast the amplitude of sunspot cycle 24 at W=92 +/- 13 (in units of annual sunspot number).

The subject of this paper is the existence and stability of solar cycles with duration in the range of 20-250 years. Five type of data series are used: 1) The Zurich series (1749-2009), the mean annual International sunspot number Ri; 2) The Group sunspot number series Rh (1610-1995); 3) The simulated extended sunspot Rsi number from Extended time series of Solar Activity Indices (ESAI) (1090- 2002); 4) The simulated extended geomagnetic aa-index from ESAI (1099-2002); 5) The Meudon filament series (1919-1991) (it is used only particularly). Data series are smoothed over 11 years and supercenturial trends are removed. Two principally independent methods of time series analysis are used: the T-R periodogram analysis (both in the standard and "scanning window" regimes) and the wavelet-analysis. The obtained results are very similar. It is found that in all series a strong cycle with mean duration of 55-60 years exists. It is very well expressed in the 18th and the 19th centuries. It is less pronounced during the end of the 19th and the beginning of the 20th centuries. On the other hand a strong and stable quasi 110-120 years and ~200-year cycles are obtained in most of these series. However the 200-yr cycle is not detectable in the Zurich series. There is a strong mean oscillation of ~ 95 years, which is absent in the other data sets. The analysis of the ESAI (AD 1090-2002) proved that the quasi century cycle has a relatively stable doublet (~80 and ~120 years) or triplet (~55-60, 80 and 120 years) structure during the last ~900 years. Most probably the different type of oscillations in the sub-century and century period range corresponds to cycles of different classes of active regions. The solar-terrestrial relationships aspects of these results are briefly discussed.

The subject of this paper is the existence and stability of solar cycles with duration in the range of 20-250 years. Five type of data series are used: 1) The Zurich series (1749-2009), the mean annual International sunspot number Ri; 2) The Group sunspot number series Rh (1610-1995); 3) The simulated extended sunspot Rsi number from Extended time series of Solar Activity Indices (ESAI) (1090- 2002); 4) The simulated extended geomagnetic aa-index from ESAI (1099-2002); 5) The Meudon filament series (1919-1991) (it is used only particularly). Data series are smoothed over 11 years and supercenturial trends are removed. Two principally independent methods of time series analysis are used: the T-R periodogram analysis (both in the standard and "scanning window" regimes) and the wavelet-analysis. The obtained results are very similar. It is found that in all series a strong cycle with mean duration of 55-60 years exists. It is very well expressed in the 18th and the 19th centuries. It is less pronounced during the end of the 19th and the beginning of the 20th centuries. On the other hand a strong and stable quasi 110-120 years and ~200-year cycles are obtained in most of these series. However the 200-yr cycle is not detectable in the Zurich series. There is a strong mean oscillation of ~ 95 years, which is absent in the other data sets. The analysis of the simulated Pulkovo extended sunspot series (AD 1090-2002) proved that the quasi century cycle has a relatively stable doublet (~80 and ~120 years) or triplet (~55-60, 80 and 120 years) structure during the last ~900 years. Most probably the different type of oscillations in the sub-century and century period range corresponds to cycles of different classes of active regions. The solar-terrestrial relationships aspects of these results are briefly discussed.

The magnetic chirality in solar atmosphere has been studied based on the soft X-ray and magnetic field observations. It is found that some of large-scale twisted soft X-ray loop systems occur for several months in the solar atmosphere, before the disappearance of the corresponding background large-scale magnetic field. It provides the observational evidence of the helicity of the large-scale magnetic field in the solar atmosphere and the reverse one relative to the helicity rule in both hemispheres with solar cycles. The transfer of the magnetic helicity from the subatmosphere is consistent with the formation of large-scale twisted soft X-ray loops in the both solar hemispheres.

The turbulent magnetic diffusivity in the solar convection zone is one of the most poorly constrained ingredients of mean-field dynamo models. This lack of constraint has previously led to controversy regarding the most appropriate set of parameters, as different assumptions on the value of turbulent diffusivity lead to radically different solar cycle predictions. Typically, the dynamo community uses double step diffusivity profiles characterized by low values of diffusivity in the bulk of the convection zone. However, these low diffusivity values are not consistent with theoretical estimates based on mixing-length theory — which suggest much higher values for turbulent diffusivity. To make matters worse, kinematic dynamo simulations cannot yield sustainable magnetic cycles using these theoretical estimates. In this work we show that magnetic cycles become viable if we combine the theoretically estimated diffusivity profile with magnetic quenching of the diffusivity. Furthermore, we find that the main features of this solution can be reproduced by a dynamo simulation using a prescribed (kinematic) diffusivity profile that is based on the spatiotemporal geometric-average of the dynamically quenched diffusivity. Here, we provide an analytic fit to the dynamically quenched diffusivity profile, which can be used in kinematic dynamo simulations. Having successfully reconciled the mixing-length theory estimated diffusivity profile with kinematic dynamo models, we argue that they remain a viable tool for understanding the solar magnetic cycle.

We analyze the occurrence frequency distributions of peak fluxes $P$, total fluxes $E$, and durations $T$ of solar flares over the last three solar cycles (during 1980–2010) from hard X-ray data of HXRBS/SMM, BATSE/CGRO, and RHESSI. From the synthesized data we find powerlaw slopes with mean values of $\alpha_P=1.72\pm0.08$ for the peak flux, $\alpha_E=1.60\pm0.14$ for the total flux, and $\alpha_T=1.98\pm0.35$ for flare durations. We find a systematic anti-correlation of the powerlaw slope of peak fluxes as a function of the solar cycle, varying with an approximate sinusoidal variation $\alpha_P(t)=\alpha_0+\Delta \alpha \cos{[2\pi (t-t_0)/T_{cycle}]}$, with a mean of $\alpha_0=1.73$, a variation of $\Delta \alpha =0.14$, a solar cycle period $T_{cycle}=12.6$ yrs, and a cycle minimum time $t_0=1984.1$. The powerlaw slope is flattest during the maximum of a solar cycle, which indicates a higher magnetic complexity of the solar corona that leads to an overproportional rate of powerful flares.

We analyze the occurrence frequency distributions of peak fluxes $P$, total fluxes $E$, and durations $T$ of solar flares over the last three solar cycles (during 1980–2010) from hard X-ray data of HXRBS/SMM, BATSE/CGRO, and RHESSI. From the synthesized data we find powerlaw slopes with mean values of $\alpha_P=1.72\pm0.08$ for the peak flux, $\alpha_E=1.60\pm0.14$ for the total flux, and $\alpha_T=1.98\pm0.35$ for flare durations. We find a systematic anti-correlation of the powerlaw slope of peak fluxes as a function of the solar cycle, varying with an approximate sinusoidal variation $\alpha_P(t)=\alpha_0+\Delta \alpha \cos{[2\pi (t-t_0)/T_{cycle}]}$, with a mean of $\alpha_0=1.73$, a variation of $\Delta \alpha =0.14$, a solar cycle period $T_{cycle}=12.6$ yrs, and a cycle minimum time $t_0=1984.1$. The powerlaw slope is flattest during the maximum of a solar cycle, which indicates a higher magnetic complexity of the solar corona that leads to an overproportional rate of powerful flares.

We analyze the occurrence frequency distributions of peak fluxes $P$, total fluxes $E$, and durations $T$ of solar flares over the last three solar cycles (during 1980-2010) from hard X-ray data of HXRBS/SMM, BATSE/CGRO, and RHESSI. From the synthesized data we find powerlaw slopes with mean values of $\alpha_P=1.75\pm0.05$ for the peak flux, $\alpha_E=1.61\pm0.04$ for the total flux, and $\alpha_T=2.08\pm0.10$ for flare durations. We find no evidence that these frequency distributions have significantly different slopes during the minima of the solar cycles, including the current anomalously extended solar minimum. The powerlaw distributions can be interpreted in terms of a nonlinear dissipative system in the state of self-organized criticality (SOC). The invariance of the powerlaw slopes during the solar cycles, despite of the nonstationarity of the flare rate by orders of magnitude, implies a universal behavior in the nonlinear growth evolution of magnetic instabilities in solar flares, independent of a slow or fast driving rate by the solar dynamo. We model the observed frequency distributions with a randomized exponential-growth process in a SOC state.

We study the relationship between full-disk solar radiative flux at different wavelengths and average solar photospheric magnetic-flux density, using daily measurements from the Kitt Peak magnetograph and other instruments extending over one or more solar cycles. We use two different statistical methods to determine the underlying nature of these flux-flux relationships. First, we use statistical correlation and regression analysis and show that the relationships are not monotonic for total solar irradiance and for continuum radiation from the photosphere, but are approximately linear for chromospheric and coronal radiation. Second, we use signal theory to examine the flux-flux relationships for a temporal component. We find that a well-defined temporal component exists and accounts for some of the variance in the data. This temporal component arises because active regions with high magnetic field strength evolve, breaking up into small-scale magnetic elements with low field strength, and radiative and magnetic fluxes are sensitive to different active-region components. We generate empirical models that relate radiative flux to magnetic flux, allowing us to predict spectral-irradiance variations from observations of disk-averaged magnetic-flux density. In most cases, the model reconstructions can account for 85-90% of the variability of the radiative flux from the chromosphere and corona. Our results are important for understanding the relationship between magnetic and radiative measures of solar and stellar variability.

The Sun is a variable star whose magnetic activity varies most perceptibly on a timescale of approximately 11 years. However, significant variation is also observed on much shorter timescales. We observe a quasi-biennial (2 year) signal in the natural oscillation frequencies of the Sun. The oscillation frequencies are sensitive probes of the solar interior and so by studying them we can gain information about conditions beneath the solar surface. Our results point strongly to the 2 year signal being distinct and separate from, but nevertheless susceptible to the influence of, the main 11 year solar cycle.

Measurements of the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) over several solar cycles do not agree with computed values of open magnetic flux from potential field extrapolations. The discrepancy becomes greater around solar maximum in each cycle, when the IMF can be twice as strong as predicted by the potential field model. Here we demonstrate that this discrepancy may be resolved by allowing for electric currents in the low corona (below 2.5 solar radii). We present a quasi-static numerical model of the large-scale coronal magnetic evolution, which systematically produces these currents through flux emergence and shearing by surface motions. The open flux is increased by 75%-85% at solar maximum, but only 25% at solar minimum, bringing it in line with estimates from IMF measurements. The additional open flux in the non-potential model arises through inflation of the magnetic field by electric currents, with super-imposed fluctuations due to coronal mass ejections. The latter are modelled by the self-consistent ejection of twisted magnetic flux ropes.

Variation in high energy cosmic rays (HECRs) has been proposed to explain a 62 My periodicity in terrestrial fossil biodiversity. It has been suggested that the infall of our galaxy toward the Virgo cluster could generate an extragalactic shock, accelerating charged particles and exposing the earth to a flux of high energy cosmic rays (HECRs). The oscillation of the Sun perpendicular to the galactic plane could induce 62 My periodicity in the HECR flux on the Earth, with a magnitude much higher than the Galactic cosmic ray change we see in a solar cycle. This mechanism could potentially explain the observed 62 My periodicity in terrestrial biodiversity over the past 500 My. In addition to direct effects on life from secondaries, HECRs induced air showers ionize the atmosphere leading to changes in atmospheric chemistry and microphysical processes that can lead to cloud formation including low altitude cloud cover. An increase in ionization changes the global electric circuit which could enhance the formation of cloud condensation nuclei (CCN) through microphysical processes such as electroscavenging and ion mediated nucleation, leading to an increase in the cloud cover. This could increase the albedo and reduce the solar flux reaching the ground, reducing the global temperature. Using an existing model, we have calculated the enhancement in atmospheric ionization at low altitudes resulting from exposure to HECRs. We use a conservative model to estimate the change in low altitude cloud cover from this increased ionization.

We model the surface magnetic field and open flux of the Sun from 1913 to 1986 using a surface flux transport model, which includes the observed cycle-to-cycle variation of sunspot group tilts. The model reproduces the empirically derived time evolution of the solar open magnetic flux, and the reversal times of the polar fields. We find that both the polar field and the axial dipole moment resulting from this model around cycle minimum correlate with the strength of the following cycle.

Continuous wavelet transform and cross-wavelet transform have been used to investigate the phase periodicity and synchrony of the monthly mean Wolf ($R_{z}$) and group ($R_{g}$) sunspot numbers during the period of June 1795 to December 1995. The Schwabe cycle is the only one common period in Rg and Rz, but it is not well-defined in case of cycles 5-7 of Rg and in case of cycles 5 and 6 of $R_{z}$. In fact, the Schwabe period is slightly different in $R_{g}$ and $R_{z}$ before cycle 12, but from cycle 12 onwards it is almost the same for the two time series. Asynchrony of the two time series is more obviously seen in cycles 5 and 6 than in the following cycles, and usually more obviously seen around the maximum time of a cycle than during the rest of the cycle. $R_{g}$ is found to fit $R_{z}$ better in both amplitudes and peak epoch during the minimum time time of a solar cycle than during the maximum time of the cycle, which should be caused by their different definition, and around the maximum time of a cycle, $R_{g}$ is usually less than $R_{z}$. Asynchrony of $R_{g}$ and $R_{z}$ should somewhat agree with different sunspot cycle characteristics exhibited by themselves.

We studied the effect of the perturbation of the meridional flow in the activity belts detected by local helioseismology on the development and strength of the surface magnetic field at the polar caps. We carried out simulations of synthetic solar cycles with a flux transport model, which follows the cyclic evolution of the surface field determined by flux emergence and advective transport by near-surface flows. In each hemisphere, an axisymmetric band of latitudinal flows converging towards the central latitude of the activity belt was superposed onto the background poleward meridional flow. The overall effect of the flow perturbation is to reduce the latitude separation of the magnetic polarities of a bipolar magnetic region and thus diminish its contribution to the polar field. As a result, the polar field maximum reached around cycle activity minimum is weakened by the presence of the meridional flow perturbation. For a flow perturbation consistent with helioseismic observations, the polar field is reduced by about 18% compared to the case without inflows. If the amplitude of the flow perturbation depends on the cycle strength, its effect on the polar field provides a nonlinearity that could contribute to limiting the amplitude of a Babcock-Leighton type dynamo.

Detailed solar Angular Momentum (AM) graphs produced from the Jet Propulsion Laboratory (JPL) DE405 ephemeris display cyclic perturbations that show a very strong correlation with prior solar activity slowdowns. These same AM perturbations also occur simultaneously with known solar path changes about the Solar System Barycentre (SSB). The AM perturbations can be measured and quantified allowing analysis of past solar cycle modulations along with the 11,500 year solar proxy records (14C & 10Be). The detailed AM information also displays a recurring wave of modulation that aligns very closely with the observed sunspot record since 1650. The AM perturbation and modulation is a direct product of the outer gas giants (Uranus & Neptune). This information gives the opportunity to predict future grand minima along with normal solar cycle strength with some confidence. A proposed mechanical link between solar activity and planetary influence via a discrepancy found in solar/planet AM along with current AM perturbations indicate solar cycle 24 & 25 will be heavily reduced in sunspot activity resembling a similar pattern to solar cycles 5 & 6 during the Dalton Minimum (1790-1830).

Detailed solar Angular Momentum (AM) graphs produced from the Jet Propulsion Laboratory (JPL) DE405 ephemeris display cyclic perturbations that show a very strong correlation with prior solar activity slowdowns. These same AM perturbations also occur simultaneously with known solar path changes about the Solar System Barycentre (SSB). The AM perturbations can be measured and quantified allowing analysis of past solar cycle modulations along with the 11,500 year solar proxy records (14C & 10Be). The detailed AM information also displays a recurring wave of modulation that aligns very closely with the observed sunspot record since 1650. The AM perturbation and modulation is a direct product of the outer gas giants (Uranus & Neptune). This information gives the opportunity to predict future grand minima along with normal solar cycle strength with some confidence. A proposed mechanical link between solar activity and planetary influence via a discrepancy found in solar/planet AM along with current AM perturbations indicate solar cycle 24 & 25 will be heavily reduced in sunspot activity resembling a similar pattern to solar cycles 5 & 6 during the Dalton Minimum (1790-1830).

The daily variation of the solar photocenter over some 11 years is derived from the Mount Wilson data reprocessed by Ulrich et al. 2010 to closely match the surface distribution of solar irradiance. The standard deviations of astrometric jitter are 0.52 $\mu$AU and 0.39 $\mu$AU in the equatorial and the axial dimensions, respectively. The overall dispersion is strongly correlated with the solar cycle, reaching $0.91 \mu$AU at the maximum activity in 2000. The largest short-term deviations from the running average (up to 2.6 $\mu$AU) occur when a group of large spots happen to lie on one side with respect to the center of the disk. The amplitude spectrum of the photocenter variations never exceeds 0.033 $\mu$AU for the range of periods 0.6–1.4 yr, corresponding to the orbital periods of planets in the habitable zone. Astrometric detection of Earth-like planets around stars as quiet as the Sun is not affected by star spot noise, but the prospects for more active stars may be limited to giant planets.

The daily variation of the solar photocenter over some 11 years is derived from the Mount Wilson data reprocessed by Ulrich et al. 2010 to closely match the surface distribution of solar irradiance. The standard deviations of astrometric jitter are 0.52 $\mu$AU and 0.39 $\mu$AU in the equatorial and the axial dimensions, respectively. The overall dispersion is strongly correlated with the solar cycle, reaching $0.91 \mu$AU at the maximum activity in 2000. The largest short-term deviations from the running average (up to 2.6 $\mu$AU) occur when a group of large spots happen to lie on one side with respect to the center of the disk. The amplitude spectrum of the photocenter variations never exceeds 0.033 $\mu$AU for the range of periods 0.6–1.4 yr, corresponding to the orbital periods of planets in the habitable zone. Astrometric detection of Earth-like planets around stars as quiet as the Sun is not affected by star spot noise, but the prospects for more active stars may be limited to giant planets.

Searches for exoplanets with radial velocity techniques are increasingly sensitive to stellar activity. It is therefore crucial to characterize how this activity influences radial velocity measurements in their study of the detectability of planets in these conditions. In a previous work we simulated the impact of spots and plages on the radial velocity of the Sun. Our objective is to compare this simulation with the observed radial velocity of the Sun for the same period. We use Dopplergrams and magnetograms obtained by MDI/SOHO over one solar cycle to reconstruct the solar integrated radial velocity in the Ni line 6768 \AA. We also characterize the relation between the velocity and the local magnetic field to interpret our results. We obtain a stronger redshift in places where the local magnetic field is larger (and as a consequence for larger magnetic structures): hence we find a higher attenuation of the convective blueshift in plages than in the network. Our results are compatible with an attenuation of this blueshift by about 50% when averaged over plages and network. We obtain an integrated radial velocity with an amplitude over the solar cycle of about 8 m/s, with small-scale variations similar to the results of the simulation, once they are scaled to the Ni line. The observed solar integrated radial velocity agrees with the result of the simulation made in our previous work within 30%, which validates this simulation. The observed amplitude confirms that the impact of the convective blueshift attenuation in magnetic regions will be critical to detect Earth-mass planets in the habitable zone around solar-like stars.

We investigate whether or not the decadal and multi-decadal climate oscillations have an astronomical origin. Several global surface temperature records since 1850 and records deduced from the orbits of the planets present very similar power spectra. Eleven frequencies with period between 5 and 100 years closely correspond in the two records. Among them, large climate oscillations with peak-to-trough amplitude of about 0.1 $^oC$ and 0.25 $^oC$, and periods of about 20 and 60 years, respectively, are synchronized to the orbital periods of Jupiter and Saturn. Schwabe and Hale solar cycles are also visible in the temperature records. A 9.1-year cycle is synchronized to the Moon’s orbital cycles. A phenomenological model based on these astronomical cycles can be used to well reconstruct the temperature oscillations since 1850 and to make partial forecasts for the 21$^{st}$ century. It is found that at least 60\% of the global warming observed since 1970 has been induced by the combined effect of the above natural climate oscillations. The partial forecast indicates that climate may stabilize or cool until 2030-2040. Possible physical mechanisms are qualitatively discussed with an emphasis on the phenomenon of collective synchronization of coupled oscillators.

We have measured the physical properties of polar coronal holes from the minimum activity phase of solar cycle 23 (1996-1997) to the present minimum of solar cycle 24 (2007-2009) using the UVCS instrument on SOHO. Observations in H I Lyman alpha (121.6 nm) and O VI (103.2, 103.7 nm) provide spectroscopic diagnostics of proton and O5+ bulk outflow velocities and velocity distributions as a function of heliocentric distance above the poles of the Sun. These observations have allowed us to follow the changes in the physical properties of the polar coronal holes during solar cycle 23 and its approach to the current minimum. Recent ground- and space-based observations have reported a variety of phenomena associated with the current minimum. We present the comparison of observed oxygen line intensities, line ratios, and profiles for polar coronal holes at both minima and during solar cycle 23 and show how this new minimum manifests itself in the ultraviolet corona. The comparison of the physical properties of these two minima as seen by UVCS in the extended corona, now possible for the first time, may provide crucial empirical constraints on models of extended coronal heating and acceleration for the fast solar wind.

We have analyzed available full-disc data from the Michelson Doppler Imager (MDI) on board SoHO using the "ring diagram" technique to determine the behavior of solar meridional flows over solar cycle 23 in the outer 2% of the solar radius. We find that the dominant component of meridional flows during solar maximum was much lower than that during the minima at the beginning of cycles 23 and 24. There were differences in the flow velocities even between the two minima. The meridional flows show a migrating pattern with higher-velocity flows migrating towards the equator as activity increases. Additionally, we find that the migrating pattern of the meridional flow matches those of sunspot butterfly diagram and the zonal flows in the shallow layers. A high latitude band in meridional flow appears around 2004, well before the current activity minimum. A Legendre polynomial decomposition of the meridional flows shows that the latitudinal pattern of the flow was also different during the maximum as compared to that during the two minima. The different components of the flow have different time-dependences, and the dependence is different at different depths.

The Sun is a magnetic star whose cyclic activity is thought to be linked to internal dynamo mechanisms. A combination of numerical modelling with various levels of complexity is an efficient and accurate tool to investigate such intricate dynamical processes. We investigate the role of the magnetic buoyancy process in 2D Babcock-Leighton dynamo models, by modelling more accurately the surface source term for poloidal field. Methods. To do so, we reintroduce in mean-field models the results of full 3D MHD calculations of the non-linear evolution of a rising flux tube in a convective shell. More specifically, the Babcock-Leighton source term is modified to take into account the delay introduced by the rise time of the toroidal structures from the base of the convection zone to the solar surface. We find that the time delays introduced in the equations produce large temporal modulation of the cycle amplitude even when strong and thus rapidly rising flux tubes are considered. Aperiodic modulations of the solar cycle appear after a sequence of period doubling bifurcations typical of non-linear systems. The strong effects introduced even by small delays is found to be due to the dependence of the delays on the magnetic field strength at the base of the convection zone, the modulation being much less when time delays remain constant. We do not find any significant influence on the cycle period except when the delays are made artificially strong. A possible new origin of the solar cycle variability is here revealed. This modulated activity and the resulting butterfly diagram are then more compatible with observations than what the standard Babcock-Leighton model produces.

It is known that the tilt angles of active regions increase with their latitude (Joy’s law). It has never been checked before, however, whether the average tilt angles change from one cycle to another. Flux transport models show the importance of tilt angles for the reversal and build up of magnetic flux at the poles which is, in turn, correlated with the strength of the next cycle. Here we analyse time series of tilt angle measurements and look for a possible relationship of the tilt angles with other solar cycle parameters, in order to glean information on the solar dynamo and to estimate their potential for predictions of solar activity. We employ tilt angle data from Mount Wilson and Kodaikanal observatories covering solar cycles 15 to 21. We analyse the latitudinal distribution of the tilt angles (Joy’s law), their variation from cycle to cycle and their relationship to other solar cycle parameters, such as the strength, amplitude and length. The two main results are: 1. An anti-correlation between the mean normalized tilt angle of a given cycle and the strength (or amplitude) of that cycle, with a correlation coefficient of r=-0.95 and r=-0.93 for Mount Wilson and Kodaikanal data, respectively. 2. The product of the cycle averaged tilt angle and the strength of the same cycle displays a significant correlation with the strength of the next cycle (r=0.65 and r=0.70 for Mount Wilson and Kodaikanal data, respectively). An even better correlation is obtained between the source term of the poloidal flux in Babcock-Leighton-type dynamos (which contains the tilt angle) and the amplitude of the next cycle. The results of this study indicate that in combination with the cycle strength, the active region tilt angles play an important role in building up the polar fields at cycle minimum.

It is shown that, the wavelet regression detrended fluctuations of the monthly sunspot number for 1749-2009 years exhibit strong periodicity with a period approximately equal to 3.7 years. The wavelet regression method detrends the data from the approximately 11-years period. Therefore, it is suggested that the one-third subharmonic resonance can be considered as a background for the 11-years solar cycle. It is also shown that the broad-band part of the wavelet regression detrended fluctuations spectrum exhibits an exponential decay that, together with the positive largest Lyapunov exponent, are the hallmarks of chaos. Using a complex-time analytic approach the rate of the exponential decay of the broad-band part of the spectrum has been theoretically related to the Carrington solar rotation period. Relation of the driving period of the subharmonic resonance (3.7-years) to the active longitude flip-flop phenomenon, in which the dominant part of the sunspot activity changes the longitude every 3.7 years on average, has been briefly discussed.

It is shown that, the wavelet regression detrended fluctuations of the monthly sunspot number for 1749-2009 years exhibit strong periodicity with a period approximately equal to 3.7 years. The wavelet regression method detrends the data from the approximately 11-years period. Therefore, it is suggested that the one-third subharmonic resonance can be considered as a background for the 11-years solar cycle. Relation of the driving period of the subharmonic resonance (3.7-years) to the active longitude flip-flop phenomenon, in which the dominant part of the sunspot activity changes the longitude every 3.7 years on average, has been briefly discussed.

Some established views of the solar magnetic cycle are discussed critically, with focus on two aspects at the core of most models: the role of convective turbulence, and the role of the `tachocline’ at the base of the convection zone. The standard view which treats the solar cycle as a manifestation of the interaction between convection and magnetic fields is shown to be misplaced. The main ingredient of the solar cycle, apart from differential rotation, is instead buoyant instability of the magnetic field itself. This view of the physics of the solar cycle was already established in the 1950s, but has been eclipsed mathematically by mean field turbulence formalisms which make poor contact with observations and have serious theoretical problems. The history of this development in the literature is discussed critically. The source of the magnetic field of the solar cycle is currently assumed to be located in the `tachocline’: the shear zone at the base of the convection zone. While the azimuthal field of the cycle is indeed most likely located at the base of the convection zone, it cannot be powered by the radial shear of the tachocline as assumed in these models, since the radiative interior does not support significant shear stresses. Instead, it must be the powered by the latitudinal gradient in rotation rate in the convection zone, as in early models of the solar cycle. Possible future directions for research are briefly discussed.

We used long duration, high quality, unresolved (Sun-as-a star) observations collected by the ground based network BiSON and by the instruments GOLF and VIRGO on board the ESA/NASA SOHO satellite to search for solar-cycle-related changes in mode characteristics in velocity and continuum intensity for the frequency range between 2.5mHz < nu < 6.8mHz. Over the ascending phase of solar cycle 23 we found a suppression in the p-mode amplitudes both in the velocity and intensity data between 2.5mHz <nu< 4.5mHz with a maximum suppression for frequencies in the range between 2.5mHz <nu< 3.5mHz. The size of the amplitude suppression is 13+-2 per cent for the velocity and 9+-2 per cent for the intensity observations. Over the range 4.5mHz <nu< 5.5mHz the findings hint within the errors to a null change both in the velocity and intensity amplitudes. At still higher frequencies, in the so called High-frequency Interference Peaks (HIPs) between 5.8mHz <nu < 6.8mHz, we found an enhancement in the velocity amplitudes with the maximum 36+-7 per cent occurring for 6.3mHz <nu< 6.8mHz. However, in intensity observations we found a rather smaller enhancement of about 5+-2 per cent in the same interval. There is evidence that the frequency dependence of solar-cycle velocity amplitude changes is consistent with the theory behind the mode conversion of acoustic waves in a non-vertical magnetic field, but there are some problems with the intensity data, which may be due to the height in the solar atmosphere at which the VIRGO data are taken.

We used long duration, high quality, unresolved (Sun-as-a star) observations collected by the ground based network BiSON and by the instruments GOLF and VIRGO on board the ESA/NASA SOHO satellite to search for solar-cycle-related changes in mode characteristics in velocity and continuum intensity for the frequency range between 2.5mHz < nu < 6.8mHz. Over the ascending phase of solar cycle 23 we found a suppression in the p-mode amplitudes both in the velocity and intensity data between 2.5mHz <nu< 4.5mHz with a maximum suppression for frequencies in the range between 2.5mHz <nu< 3.5mHz. The size of the amplitude suppression is 13+-2 per cent for the velocity and 9+-2 per cent for the intensity observations. Over the range 4.5mHz <nu< 5.5mHz the findings hint within the errors to a null change both in the velocity and intensity amplitudes. At still higher frequencies, in the so called High-frequency Interference Peaks (HIPs) between 5.8mHz <nu < 6.8mHz, we found an enhancement in the velocity amplitudes with the maximum 36+-7 per cent occurring for 6.3mHz <nu< 6.8mHz. However, in intensity observations we found a rather smaller enhancement of about 5+-2 per cent in the same interval. There is evidence that the frequency dependence of solar-cycle velocity amplitude changes is consistent with the theory behind the mode conversion of acoustic waves in a non-vertical magnetic field, but there are some problems with the intensity data, which may be due to the height in the solar atmosphere at which the VIRGO data are taken.