A very strong period of 3592+-57 yrs in 10Be deposition rates from Vostok ice core raw data was detected and verified against concentration raw data at Taylor Dome and Vostok. Data show Hallstadzeit Solar cycle at 2296+-57 yrs, and indicate LaViolette period at 12500 yrs. The 99% confidence Gauss Vanicek spectral analysis was used, making data alteration avoidable thus enabling data separation that reflected cosmic ray background conditions at Galactic boundary. After the separation only the new period remains and converges, hence it is of extrasolar and Galactic origin. Since dominant spectral peaks from 10Be can only be explained by excesses in cosmic ray influx, the discovered signature indicates bursts occurring regularly in a single source. Based on recent sky surveys, Galactic Core makes the best candidate host for the bursts. A previously reported 3600 yrs period in geomagnetic field declinations means the discovered phase can overpower astronomical magnetic fields at distances such as Galactic Core to Earth. The epoch of the most recent 10Be maximum is estimated as 1085+-57, coinciding with 1054 to 1056 alleged account of Crab supernova. The next maximum 10Be on Earth is predicted in year 4463+-57, meaning Earth climate alternates due to geophysical or nonsolar cosmic forcing.

The active region NOAA 11158 produced the first X-class flare of Solar Cycle 24, an X2.2 flare at 01:44 UT on 2011 February 15. Here we analyze SDO/HMI magnetograms covering a 12-hour interval centered at the time of this flare. We describe the spatial distributions of the photospheric magnetic changes associated with this flare, including the abrupt changes in the field vector, vertical electric current and Lorentz force vector. We also trace these parameters’ temporal evolution. The abrupt magnetic changes were concentrated near the neutral line and in two neighboring sunspots. Near the neutral line, the field vectors became more horizontal during the flare and the shear increased. This was due to an increase in strength of the horizontal field components near the neutral line, most significant in the horizontal component parallel to the neutral line but the perpendicular component also increased in strength. The vertical component did not show a significant, permanent overall change at the neutral line. The increase in total flux at the neutral line was accompanied by a compensating flux decrease in the surrounding volume. In both of the sunspots near the neutral line the azimuthal flux abruptly decreased during the flare but this change was permanent in only one of the spots. There was a large, abrupt, downward vertical Lorentz force change during the flare, consistent with results of past analyses and recent theoretical work. The horizontal Lorentz force acted in opposite directions on each side of neutral line, with the two sunspots at each end subject to abrupt torsional forces. The shearing forces were consistent with a decrease of shear near the neutral line, whereas the field itself became more sheared as a result of the flux collapsing towards the neutral line from the surrounding volume.

Context: The study of variations in total solar irradiance (TSI) is important for understanding how the Sun affects the Earth’s climate. Aims: Full-disk continuum images and magnetograms are now available for three full solar cycles. We investigate how modelled TSI compares with direct observations by building a consistent modelled TSI dataset. The model, based only on changes in the photospheric magnetic flux can then be tested on rotational, cyclical and secular timescales. Methods: We use Kitt Peak and SoHO/MDI continuum images and magnetograms in the SATIRE-S model to reconstruct TSI over cycles 21-23. To maximise independence from TSI composites, SORCE/TIM TSI data are used to fix the one free parameter of the model. We compare and combine the separate data sources for the model to estimate an uncertainty on the reconstruction and prevent any additional free parameters entering the model. Results: The reconstruction supports the PMOD composite as being the best historical record of TSI observations, although on timescales of the solar rotation the IRMB composite provides somewhat better agreement. Further to this, the model is able to account for 92% of TSI variations from 1978 to 2009 in the PMOD composite and over 96% during cycle 23. The reconstruction also displays an inter-cycle, secular decline of 0.20 (+0.12 / -0.09) Wm-2 between cycle 23 minima, in agreement with the PMOD composite. Conclusions: SATIRE-S is able to recreate TSI observations on all timescales of a day and longer over 31 years from 1978. This is strong evidence that changes in photospheric magnetic flux alone are responsible for almost all solar irradiance variations over the last three solar cycles.

Relations between the length of a sunspot cycle and the average temperature in the same and the next cycle are calculated for a number of meteorological stations in Norway and in the North Atlantic region. No significant trend is found between the length of a cycle and the average temperature in the same cycle, but a significant negative trend is found between the length of a cycle and the temperature in the next cycle. This provides a tool to predict an average temperature decrease of at least 1.0 “C from solar cycle 23 to 24 for the stations and areas analyzed. We find for the Norwegian local stations investigated that 25-56% of the temperature increase the last 150 years may be attributed to the Sun. For 3 North Atlantic stations we get 63-72% solar contribution. This points to the Atlantic currents as reinforcing a solar signal.

The flash spectrum of the solar chromosphere and corona was measured with a slitless spectrograph before, after, and during the totality of the solar eclipse, of 11 July 2010, at Easter Island, Chile. This eclipse took place at the beginning of the Solar Cycle 24, after an extended minimum of solar activity. The spectra taken during the eclipse show a different intensity ratio of the red and green coronal lines compared with those taken during the total solar eclipse of 1 August 2008, which took place towards the end of the Solar Cycle 23. The characteristic coronal forbidden emission line of forbidden Fe XIV (5303 {\AA}) was observed on the east and west solar limbs in four areas relatively symmetrically located with respect to the solar rotation axis. Subtraction of the continuum flash-spectrum background led to the identification of several extremely weak emission lines, including forbidden Ca XV (5694 {\AA}), which is normally detected only in regions of very high excitation, e.g., during flares or above large sunspots. The height of the chromosphere was measured spectrophotometrically, using spectral lines from light elements and compared with the equivalent height of the lower chromosphere measured using spectral lines from heavy elements.

A physically consistent model of magnetic field generation by convection in a rotating spherical shell with a minimum of parameters is applied to the Sun. Despite its unrealistic features the model exhibits a number of properties resembling those observed on the Sun. The model suggests that the large scale solar dynamo is dominated by a non-axisymmetric $m=1$ component of the magnetic field.

Universal role of the nonlinear one-third subharmonic resonance mechanism in generation of the strong fluctuations in such complex natural dynamical systems as global climate and global solar activity is discussed using wavelet regression detrended data. Role of the oceanic Rossby waves in the year-scale global temperature fluctuations and the nonlinear resonance contribution to the El Nino phenomenon have been discussed in detail. The large fluctuations of the reconstructed temperature on the millennial time-scales (Antarctic ice cores data for the past 400,000 years) are also shown to be dominated by the one-third subharmonic resonance, presumably related to Earth precession effect on the energy that the intertropical regions receive from the Sun. Effects of Galactic turbulence on the temperature fluctuations are discussed in this content. It is also shown that the one-third subharmonic resonance can be considered as a background for the 11-years solar cycle, and again the global (solar) rotation and chaotic propagating waves play significant role in this phenomenon. Finally, a multidecadal chaotic coherence between the detrended solar activity and global temperature has been briefly discussed.

We report the evolution of magnetic field and its energy in NOAA active region 11158 over 5 days based on a vector magnetogram series from the Helioseismic and Magnetic Imager (HMI) on board the Solar Dynamic Observatory (SDO). Fast flux emergence and strong shearing motion led to a quadrupolar sunspot complex that produced several major eruptions, including the first X-class flare of Solar Cycle 24. Extrapolated non-linear force-free coronal fields show substantial electric current and free energy increase during early flux emergence near a low-lying sigmoidal filament with sheared kilogauss field in the filament channel. The computed magnetic free energy reaches a maximum of ~2.6e32 erg, about 50% of which is stored below 6 Mm. It decreases by ~0.3e32 erg within 1 hour of the X-class flare, which is likely an underestimation of the actual energy loss. During the flare, the photospheric field changed rapidly: horizontal field was enhanced by 28% in the core region, becoming more inclined and more parallel to the polarity inversion line. Such change is consistent with the conjectured coronal field “implosion”, and is supported by the coronal loop retraction observed by the Atmospheric Imaging Assembly (AIA). The extrapolated field becomes more “compact” after the flare, with shorter loops in the core region, probably because of reconnection. The coronal field becomes slightly more sheared in the lowest layer, relaxes faster with height, and is overall less energetic.

We looked for signatures of Quasi-Biennial Periodicity (QBP) over different phases of solar cycle by means of acoustic modes of oscillation. Low-degree p-mode frequencies are shown to be sensitive to changes in magnetic activity due to the global dynamo. Recently have been reported evidences in favor of two-year variations in p-mode frequencies. Long high-quality helioseismic data are provided by BiSON (Birmingham Solar Oscillation Network), GONG (Global Oscillation Network Group), GOLF (Global Oscillation at Low Frequency) and VIRGO (Variability of Solar IRradiance and Gravity Oscillation) instruments. We determined the solar cycle changes in p-mode frequencies for spherical degree l=0, 1, 2 with their azimuthal components in the frequency range 2.5 mHz < nu < 3.5 mHz. We found signatures of QBP at all levels of solar activity in the modes more sensitive to higher latitudes. The signal strength increases with latitude and the equatorial component seems also to be modulated by the 11-year envelope. The persistent nature of the seismic QBP is not observed in the surface activity indices, where mid-term variations are found only time to time and mainly over periods of high activity. This feature together with the latitudinal dependence provides more evidences in favor of a mechanism almost independent and different from the one that brings up to the surface the active regions. Therefore, these findings can be used to provide more constraints on dynamo models that consider a further cyclic component on top of the 11-year cycle.

The integrated brightness of the Sun shows variability on time-scales from minutes to decades. This variability is mainly caused by pressure mode oscillations, by granulation and by dark spots and bright faculae on the surface of the Sun. By analyzing the frequency spectrum of the integrated brightness we can obtain greater knowledge about these phenomena. It is shown how the frequency spectrum of the integrated brightness of the Sun in the frequency range from 0.1 to 3.2 mHz shows clear signs of both granulation, faculae and p-mode oscillations and that the measured characteristic time-scales and amplitudes of the acoustic signals from granulation and faculae are consistent with high-resolution observations of the solar surface. Using 13 years of observations of the Sun’s integrated brightness from the VIRGO instrument on the SOHO satellite it is shown that the significance of the facular component varies with time and that it has a significance above 0.99 around half the time. Furthermore, an analysis of the temporal variability in the measured amplitudes of both the granulation, faculae and p-mode oscillation components in the frequency spectrum reveals that the amplitude of the p-mode oscillation component shows variability that follows the solar cycles, while the amplitudes of the granulation and facular components show signs of quasi-annual and quasi-biennial variability, respectively.

In order to probe the mechanism of variations of the Solar Constant on the inter-solar-cycle scale, total solar irradiance (TSI, the so-called Solar Constant) in the time interval of 7 November 1978 to 20 September 2010 is decomposed into three components through the empirical mode decomposition and time-frequency analyses. The first component is the rotation signal, counting up to 42.31% of the total variation of TSI, which is understood to be mainly caused by large magnetic structures, including sunspot groups. The second is an annual-variation signal, counting up to 15.17% of the total variation, the origin of which is not known at this point in time. Finally, the third is the inter-solar-cycle signal, counting up to 42.52%, which are inferred to be caused by the network magnetic elements in quiet regions, whose magnetic flux ranges from $(4.27-38.01)\times10^{19}$ Mx.

Solar cycles vary in their amplitude and shape. There are several empirical relations between various parameters linking cycle’s shape and amplitude, in particular the Waldmeier relations. As solar cycle is believed to be a result of the solar dynamo action, these relations require explanation in the framework of this theory.Here we aim to present a possible explanation of such kind. We relate the cycle-to-cycle variability of solar activity to fluctuations of solar dynamo drivers and primarily to fluctuations in the parameter responsible for recovery of the poloidal magnetic field from the toroidal one. To be specific, we develop such a model in the framework of the mean-field dynamo based on the differential rotation and $\alpha$-effect. We demonstrate that the mean-field dynamo based on a realistic rotation curve and nonlinearity associated with the magnetic helicity balance reproduces both qualitatively and quantitatively the Waldmeier relations observed in sunspot data since 1750 (SIDC data). The model also reproduces more or less successfully other relations between the parameters under discussion, in particular, the link between odd and even cycles (Gnevyshev-Ohl rule). We conclude that the contemporary solar dynamo theory provides a way to explain the cycle-to-cycle variability of solar activity as recorded in sunspots. We discuss the importance of the model for stellar activity cycles which, as known from the data of HK project, demonstrate the cycle-to-cycle variability similar to solar cycles.

The relationships between solar flare parameters (total importance, time duration, flare index, and flux) and sunspot activity (Rz) as well as those between geomagnetic activity (aa index) and the flare parameters can be well described by an integral response model with the response time scales of about eight and thirteen months, respectively. Compared with linear relationships, the correlation coefficients of the flare parameters with Rz, of aa with the flare parameters, and of aa with Rz based on this model have increased about 6%, 17%, and 47% on average, respectively. The time delays of the flare parameters to Rz, of aa to the flare parameters, and of aa to Rz at their peaks in solar cycle can be predicted in part by this model (82%, 47%, and 78%, respectively). These results may be further improved when using a cosine filter with a wider window. It implies that solar flares are related to the accumulation of solar magnetic energies in the past through a time decay factor. The above results may help to understand the mechanism of the solar cycle and to improve the solar flare prediction.

The growth rate of solar activity in the early phase of a solar cycle has been known to be well correlated with the subsequent amplitude (solar maximum). It provides very useful information for a new solar cycle as its variation reflects the temporal evolution of the dynamic process of solar magnetic activities from the initial phase to the peak phase of the cycle. The correlation coefficient between the solar maximum (Rmax) and the rising rate ({\beta}a) at {\Delta}m months after the solar minimum (Rmin) is studied and shown to increase as the cycle progresses with an inflection point (r = 0.83) at about {\Delta}m = 20 months. The prediction error of Rmax based on {\beta}a is found within estimation at the 90% level of confidence and the relative prediction error will be less than 20% when {\Delta}m \geq 20. From the above relationship, the current cycle (24) is preliminarily predicted to peak around October 2013 with a size of Rmax =84 \pm 33 at the 90% level of confidence.

Smoothed monthly mean coronal mass ejection (CME) parameters (speed, acceleration, central position angle, angular width, mass and kinetic energy) for Cycle 23 are cross-analyzed, showing a high correlation between most of them. The CME acceleration (a) is found to be highly correlated with the reciprocal of its mass (M), with a correlation coefficient r = 0:899. The force (Ma) to drive a CME is found to be well anti-correlated with the sunspot number (Rz), r = -0.750. The relationships between CME parameters and Rz can be well described by an integral response model with a decay time scale of about 11 months. The correlation coefficients of CME parameters with the reconstructed series based on this model (r1 = 0.886) are higher than the linear correlation coefficients of the parameters with Rz (r0 = 0.830). If a double decay integral response model is used (with two decay time scales of about 6 and 60 months), the correlations between CME parameters and Rz improve (r2 = 0.906). The time delays between CME parameters with respect to Rz are also well predicted by this model (19/22 = 86%); the average time delays are 19 months for the reconstructed and 22 months for the original time series. The model implies that CMEs are related to the accumulation of solar magnetic energy. The relationships found can help to understand the mechanisms at work during the solar cycle.

The 3D structure of solar wind and its evolution in time is needed for heliospheric modeling and interpretation of energetic neutral atoms observations. We present a model to retrieve the solar wind structure in heliolatitude and time using all available and complementary data sources. We determine the heliolatitude structure of solar wind speed on a yearly time grid over the past 1.5 solar cycles based on remote-sensing observations of interplanetary scintillations, in-situ out-of-ecliptic measurements from Ulysses, and in-situ in-ecliptic measurements from the OMNI-2 database. Since the insitu information on the solar wind density structure out of ecliptic is not available apart from the Ulysses data, we derive correlation formulae between solar wind speed and density and use the information on the solar wind speed from interplanetary scintillation observations to retrieve the 3D structure of solar wind density. With the variations of solar wind density and speed in time and heliolatitude available we calculate variations in solar wind flux, dynamic pressure and charge exchange rate in the approximation of stationary H atoms.

The 3D structure of solar wind and its evolution in time is needed for heliospheric modeling and interpretation of energetic neutral atoms observations. We present a model to retrieve the solar wind structure in heliolatitude and time using all available and complementary data sources. We determine the heliolatitude structure of solar wind speed on a yearly time grid over the past 1.5 solar cycles based on remote-sensing observations of interplanetary scintillations, in-situ out-of-ecliptic measurements from Ulysses, and in-situ in-ecliptic measurements from the OMNI-2 database. Since the insitu information on the solar wind density structure out of ecliptic is not available apart from the Ulysses data, we derive correlation formulae between solar wind speed and density and use the information on the solar wind speed from interplanetary scintillation observations to retrieve the 3D structure of solar wind density. With the variations of solar wind density and speed in time and heliolatitude available we calculate variations in solar wind flux, dynamic pressure and charge exchange rate in the approximation of stationary H atoms.

The magnetic flux that is generated by dynamo inside the Sun emerges in the form of bipolar magnetic regions. We have analyzed the whole set of solar magnetograms obtained with the SOHO/MDI instrument in 1995-2011, and automatically identified 160,079 bipolar magnetic regions that span a range of scale sizes across nearly four orders of magnitude. Their properties have been statistically analyzed, in particular with respect to the polarity orientations of the bipolar regions, including their tilt angle distributions. The latitude variation of the average tilt angles (with respect to the E-W direction), known as Joy’s law, is found to closely follow the relation 32.1*sin(latitude)[deg]. There is no indication of a dependence on region size that one may expect if the tilts were produced by the Coriolis force during the buoyant rise of flux loops from the tachocline region. A few percent of all regions have orientations that violate Hale’s polarity law. We show examples, from different phases of the solar cycle, where well defined medium-size bipolar regions with opposite polarity orientations occur side by side in the same latitude zone. Such oppositely oriented large bipolar regions cannot be part of the same toroidal flux system, but different flux systems must coexist in the same latitude zones. These examples are incompatible with the paradigm of coherent, subsurface toroidal flux ropes as the source of sunspots, and instead show that fluctuations must play a major role at all scales for the turbulent dynamo. We see no observational support for a separation of scales or a division between a global and a local dynamo, since also the smallest scales in the data set retain a non-random component that significantly contributes to the accumulated emergence of a N-S dipole moment that leads to the replacement of the old global poloidal field with a new one that has the opposite orientation.

Simple models of magnetic field generation by convection in rotating spherical shells exhibit properties resembling those observed on the sun. The {assumption of the Boussinesq approximation made in these models} prevents a realistic description of the solar cycle, but through a physically motivated change in the boundary condition for the differential rotation the propagation of dynamo waves towards higher latitudes can be reversed at least at low latitudes.

The long temperature series at Svalbard (Longyearbyen) show large variations, and a positive trend since its start in 1912. During this period solar activity has increased, as indicated by shorter solar cycles. The temperature at Svalbard is negatively correlated with the length of the solar cycle. The strongest negative correlation is found with lags 10-12 years. The relations between the length of a solar cycle and the mean temperature in the following cycle, is used to model Svalbard annual mean temperature, and seasonal temperature variations. Residuals from the annual and winter models show no autocorrelations on the 5 per cent level, which indicates that no additional parameters are needed to explain the temperature variations with 95 per cent significance. These models show that 60 per cent of the annual and winter temperature variations are explained by solar activity. For the spring, summer and fall temperatures autocorrelations in the residuals exists, and additional variables may contribute to the variations. These models can be applied as forecasting models. We predict an annual mean temperature decrease for Svalbard of 3.5\pm2 oC from solar cycle 23 to solar cycle 24 (2009-20) and a decrease in the winter temperature of \approx6 oC.

Generation and diffusion of the magnetic field on the Sun is a key mechanism responsible for solar activity on all spatial and temporal scales – from the solar cycle down to the evolution of small-scale magnetic elements in the quiet Sun. The solar dynamo operates as a non-linear dynamical process and is thought to be manifest in two types: as a global dynamo responsible for the solar cycle periodicity, and as a small-scale turbulent dynamo responsible for the formation of magnetic carpet in the quiet Sun. Numerous MHD simulations of the solar turbulence did not yet reach a consensus as to the existence of a turbulent dynamo on the Sun. At the same time, high-resolution observations of the quiet Sun from Hinode instruments suggest possibilities for the turbulent dynamo. Analysis of characteristics of turbulence derived from observations would be beneficial in tackling the problem. We analyse magnetic and velocity energy spectra as derived from Hinode/SOT, SOHO/MDI, SDO/HMI and the New Solar Telescope (NST) of Big Bear Solar Observatory (BBSO) to explore the possibilities for the small-scale turbulent dynamo in the quiet Sun.

The daily sunspot numbers of the whole disk as well as the northern and southern hemispheres from January 1, 1945 to December 31, 2010 are used to investigate the temporal variation of the rotational cycle length through the continuous wavelet transformation analysis method. The auto-correlation function analysis of daily hemispheric sunspot numbers shows that the southern hemisphere rotates faster than the northern hemisphere. The results obtained from the wavelet transformation analysis are: there exists no direct relationship between the variation trend of the rotational cycle length and the variation trend of solar activity in the two hemispheres; the rotational cycle length of both hemispheres has no significant period appearing at the 11 years, but has significant period of about 7.6 years. Analysis concerning the solar cycle dependence of the rotational cycle length shows that in the whole disk and the northern hemisphere acceleration seems to appear before the minimum time of solar activity. Furthermore, the cross-correlation study indicates that the rotational cycle length of the two hemispheres has different phases, and the rotational cycle length of the whole disk as well as the northern and southern hemispheres also has phase shifts with the corresponding solar activity. What’s more, the temporal variation of North-South (N-S) asymmetry of the rotational cycle length is also studied; it displays the same variation trend as the N-S asymmetry of solar activity in a solar cycle as well as in the considered time interval, and it has two significant periods of 7.7 and 17.5 years. Moreover, the N-S asymmetry of the rotational cycle length and the N-S asymmetry of solar activity are highly correlated. It’s inferred that the northern hemisphere should rotate faster at the beginning of solar cycle 24.

Stellar magnetic fields are produced by a magnetohydrodynamic dynamo mechanism working in their interior — which relies on the interaction between plasma flows and magnetic fields. The Sun, being a well-observed star, offers an unique opportunity to test theoretical ideas and models of stellar magnetic field generation. Solar magnetic fields produce sunspots, whose number increases and decreases with a 11 year periodicity — giving rise to what is known as the solar cycle. Dynamo models of the solar cycle seek to understand its origin, variation and evolution with time. In this review, I summarize observations of the solar cycle and describe theoretical ideas and dynamo modeling efforts to address its origin. I end with a discussion on the future of solar cycle modeling — emphasizing the importance of a close synergy between observational data assimilation, kinematic dynamo models and full magnetohydrodynamic models of the solar interior.

We investigate the relationship between the monthly averaged maximal speeds of coronal mass ejections (CMEs), international sunspot number (ISSN), and the geomagnetic Dst and Ap indices covering the 1996-2008 time interval (solar cycle 23). Our new findings are as follows. (1) There is a noteworthy relationship between monthly averaged maximum CME speeds and sunspot numbers, Ap and Dst indices. Various peculiarities in the monthly Dst index are correlated better with the fine structures in the CME speed profile than that in the ISSN data. (2) Unlike the sunspot numbers, the CME speed index does not exhibit a double peak maximum. Instead, the CME speed profile peaks during the declining phase of solar cycle 23. Similar to the Ap index, both CME speed and the Dst indices lag behind the sunspot numbers by several months. (3) The CME number shows a double peak similar to that seen in the sunspot numbers. The CME occurrence rate remained very high even near the minimum of the solar cycle 23, when both the sunspot number and the CME average maximum speed were reaching their minimum values. (4) A well-defined peak of the Ap index between 2002 May and 2004 August was co-temporal with the excess of the mid-latitude coronal holes during solar cycle 23. The above findings suggest that the CME speed index may be a useful indicator of both solar and geomagnetic activities. It may have advantages over the sunspot numbers, because it better reflects the intensity of Earth-directed solar eruptions.

Here we analyze solar activity by focusing on time variations of the number of sunspot groups (SGs) as a function of their modified Zurich class. We analyzed data for solar cycles 2023 by using Rome (cycles 2021) and Learmonth Solar Observatory (cycles 2223) SG numbers. All SGs recorded during these time intervals were separated into two groups. The first group includes small SGs (A, B, C, H, and J classes by Zurich classification) and the second group consists of large SGs (D, E, F, and G classes). We then calculated small and large SG numbers from their daily mean numbers as observed on the solar disk during a given month. We report that the time variations of small and large SG numbers are asymmetric except for the solar cycle 22. In general large SG numbers appear to reach their maximum in the middle of the solar cycle (phase 0.450.5), while the international sunspot numbers and the small SG numbers generally peak much earlier (solar cycle phase 0.290.35). Moreover, the 10.7 cm solar radio flux, the facular area, and the maximum CME speed show better agreement with the large SG numbers than they do with the small SG numbers. Our results suggest that the large SG numbers are more likely to shed light on solar activity and its geophysical implications. Our findings may also influence our understanding of long term variations of the total solar irradiance, which is thought to be an important factor in the Sun – Earth climate relationship.

A Bayesian method for forecasting solar cycles is presented. The approach combines a Fokker–Planck description of short–timescale (daily) fluctuations in sunspot number (\citeauthor{NobleEtAl2011}, 2011, \apj{} \textbf{732}, 5) with information from other sources, such as precursor and/or dynamo models. The forecasting is illustrated in application to two historical cycles (cycles 19 and 20), and then to the current solar cycle (cycle 24). The new method allows the prediction of quantiles, i.e. the probability that the sunspot number falls outside large or small bounds at a given future time. It also permits Monte Carlo simulations to identify the expected size and timing of the peak daily sunspot number, as well as the smoothed sunspot number for a cycle. These simulations show how the large variance in daily sunspot number determines the actual reliability of any forecast of the smoothed maximum of a cycle. For cycle 24 we forecast a maximum daily sunspot number of $166\pm 24$, to occur in March 2013, and a maximum value of the smoothed sunspot number of $66\pm5$, indicating a very small solar cycle.

A simple method to detect inconsistencies in low annual sunspot numbers based on the relationship between these values and the annual number of active days is described. The analysis allowed for the detection of problems in the annual sunspot number series clustered in a few specific periods and unambiguous, namely: i) before Maunder minimum, ii) the year 1652 during the Maunder minimum, iii) the year 1741 in Solar Cycle -1, and iv) the so-called “lost” solar cycle in 1790s and subsequent onset of the Dalton Minimum.

We investigate the spherical harmonic degree (l) dependence of the “seismic” quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) observed in low-degree solar p-mode frequencies, using Sun-as-a-star Birmingham Solar Oscillations Network (BiSON) data. The amplitude of the seismic QBO is modulated by the 11-yr solar cycle, with the amplitude of the signal being largest at solar maximum. The amplitude of the signal is noticeably larger for the l=2 and 3 modes than for the l=0 and 1 modes. The seismic QBO shows some frequency dependence but this dependence is not as strong as observed in the 11-yr solar cycle. These results are consistent with the seismic QBO having its origins in shallow layers of the interior (one possibility being the bottom of the shear layer extending 5per cent below the solar surface). Under this scenario the magnetic flux responsible for the seismic QBO is brought to the surface (where its influence on the p modes is stronger) by buoyant flux from the 11-yr cycle, the strong component of which is observed at predominantly low-latitudes. As the l=2 and 3 modes are much more sensitive to equatorial latitudes than the l=0 and 1 modes the influence of the 11-yr cycle on the seismic QBO is more visible in l=2 and 3 mode frequencies. Our results imply that close to solar maximum the main influence of the seismic QBO occurs at low latitudes (<45 degrees), which is where the strong component of the 11-yr solar cycle resides. To isolate the latitudinal dependence of the seismic QBO from the 11-yr solar cycle we must consider epochs when the 11-yr solar cycle is weak. However, away from solar maximum, the amplitude of the seismic QBO is weak making the latitudinal dependence hard to constrain.

We explore the importance of meridional circulation variations in modelling the irregularities of the solar cycle by using the flux transport dynamo model. We show that a fluctuating meridional circulation can reproduce some features of the solar cycle like the Waldmeier effect and the grand minimum. However, we get all these results only if the value of the turbulent diffusivity in the convection zone is reasonably high.

Solar irradiance models that assume solar irradiance variations to be due to changes in the solar surface magnetic flux have been successfully used to reconstruct total solar irradiance on rotational as well as cyclical and secular time scales. Modelling spectral solar irradiance is not yet as advanced, and also suffers from a lack of comparison data, in particular on solar-cycle time scales. Here we compare solar irradiance in the 220 nm to 240 nm band as modelled with SATIRE-S and measured by different instruments on the UARS and SORCE satellites. We find good agreement between the model and measurements on rotational time scales. The long-term trends, however, show significant differences. Both SORCE instruments, in particular, show a much steeper gradient over the decaying part of cycle 23 than the modelled irradiance or that measured by UARS/SUSIM.

Since a universally accepted dynamo model of grand minima does not exist at the present time, we concentrate on the physical processes which may be behind the grand minima. After summarizing the relevant observational data, we make the point that, while the usual sources of irregularities of solar cycles may be sufficient to cause a grand minimum, the solar dynamo has to operate somewhat differently from the normal to bring the Sun out of the grand minimum. We then consider three possible sources of irregularities in the solar dynamo: (i) nonlinear effects; (ii) fluctuations in the poloidal field generation process; (iii) fluctuations in the meridional circulation. We conclude that (i) is unlikely to be the cause behind grand minima, but a combination of (ii) and (iii) may cause them. If fluctuations make the poloidal field fall much below the average or make the meridional circulation significantly weaker, then the Sun may be pushed into a grand minimum.

Guided by the recent observational result that the meridional circulation of the Sun becomes weaker at the time of the sunspot maximum, we have included a parametric quenching of the meridional circulation in solar dynamo models such that the meridional circulation becomes weaker when the magnetic field at the base of the convection zone is stronger. We find that a flux transport solar dynamo tends to become unstable on including this quenching of meridional circulation if the diffusivity in the convection zone is less than about 2 * 10^{11} cm^2/s. The quenching of alpha, however, has a stabilizing effect and it is possible to stabilize a dynamo with low diffusivity with sufficiently strong alpha-quenching. For dynamo models with high diffusivity, the quenching of meridional circulation does not produce a large effect and the dynamo remains stable. We present a solar-like solution from a dynamo model with diffusivity 2.8 * 10^{12} cm^2/s in which the quenching of meridional circulation makes the meridional circulation vary periodically with solar cycle as observed and does not have any other significant effect on the dynamo.

Guided by the recent observational result that the meridional circulation of the Sun becomes weaker at the time of the sunspot maximum, we have included a parametric quenching of the meridional circulation in solar dynamo models such that the meridional circulation becomes weaker when the magnetic field at the base of the convection zone is stronger. We find that a flux transport solar dynamo tends to become unstable on including this quenching of meridional circulation if the diffusivity in the convection zone is less than about $2 \times 10^{11}$ cm$^2$ s$^{-1}$. The quenching of $\alpha$, however, has a stabilizing effect and it is possible to stabilize a dynamo with low diffusivity with sufficiently strong $\alpha$-quenching. For dynamo models with high diffusivity, the quenching of meridional circulation does not produce a large effect and the dynamo remains stable. We present a solar-like solution from a dynamo model with diffusivity $2.8 \times 10^{12}$ cm$^2$ s$^{-1}$ in which the quenching of meridional circulation makes the meridional circulation vary periodically with solar cycle as observed and does not have any other significant effect on the dynamo.

We analyze data from the Solar and Heliospheric Observatory to produce global maps of coronal outflow velocities and densities in the regions where the solar wind is undergoing acceleration. The maps use UV and white light coronal data obtained from the Ultraviolet Coronagraph Spectrometer and the Large Angle Spectroscopic Coronagraph, respectively, and a Doppler dimming analysis to determine the mean outflow velocities. The outflow velocities are defined on a sphere at 2.3 Rs from Sun-center and are organized by Carrington Rotations during the solar minimum period at the start of solar cycle 23. We use the outflow velocity and density maps to show that while the solar minimum corona is relatively stable during its early stages, the shrinkage of the north polar hole in the later stages leads to changes in both the global areal expansion of the coronal hole and the derived internal flux tube expansion factors of the solar wind. The polar hole areal expansion factor and the flux tube expansion factors (between the coronal base and 2.3 Rs) start out as super-radial but then they become more nearly radial as the corona progresses away from solar minimum. The results also support the idea that the largest flux tube expansion factors are located near the coronal hole/streamer interface, at least during the deepest part of the solar minimum period.

The concept of degree of similarity ({\eta}) is proposed to quantitatively describe the similarity of a parameter (e.g. the maximum amplitude Rmax) of a solar cycle relative to a referenced one, and the prediction method of similar cycles is further developed. For two parameters, the solar minimum (Rmin) and rising rate ({\beta}a), which can be directly measured a few months after the minimum, a synthesis degree of similarity ({\eta}s) is defined as the weighted-average of the {\eta} values around Rmin and {\beta}a with the weights given by the coefficients of determination of Rmax with Rmin and {\beta}a, respectively. The monthly values of the whole referenced cycle can be predicted by averaging the corresponding values in the most similar cycles with the weights given by the {\eta}s values. Cycles 14 and 10 are found to be the two most similar cycles of Cycle 24. As an application, Cycle 24 is predicted to peak around January 2013{\pm}8 (months) with a size of about Rmax =83.0{\pm}16.7 and to end around September 2019.

A new prediction technique based on logarithmic values is proposed to predict the maximum amplitude (Rm) of a solar cycle from the preceding minimum aa geomagnetic index (aamin). The correlation between lnRm and lnaamin (r = 0.92) is slightly stronger than that between Rm and aamin (r = 0.90). From this method, cycle 24 is predicted to have a peak size of Rm (24) = 81.7(1\pm13.2%). If the suggested error in aa (3 nT) before 1957 is corrected, the correlation coefficient between Rm and aamin (r = 0.94) will be slightly higher, and the peak of cycle 24 is predicted much lower, Rm(24) = 52.5\pm13.1. Therefore, the prediction of Rm based on the relationship between Rm and aamin depends greatly on the accurate measurement of aa.

The magnetic cycle of the Sun, as manifested in the cyclic appearance of sunspots, significantly influences our space environment and space-based technologies by generating what is now termed as space weather. Long-term variation in the Sun’s magnetic output also influences planetary atmospheres and climate through modulation of solar irradiance. Here, I summarize the current state of understanding of this magnetic cycle, highlighting important observational constraints, detailing the kinematic dynamo modeling approach and commenting on future prospects.

A propagation model of galactic cosmic protons through the Heliosphere was implemented using a 2-D Monte Carlo approach to determine the differential intensities of protons during the solar cycle 23. The model includes the effects due to the variation of solar activity during the propagation of cosmic rays from the boundary of the heliopause down to Earth’s position. Drift effects are also accounted for. The simulated spectra were found in agreement with those obtained with experimental observations carried out by BESS, AMS and PAMELA collaborations. In addition, the modulated spectrum determined with the present code for the year 1995 exhibits the latitudinal gradient and equatorial southward offset minimum found by Ulysses fast scan in 1995.

Generally it has been considered that the plages and sunspots are the main contributors to the solar irradiance. There are small scale structures on the sun with intermediate magnetic fields that could also contribute to the solar irradiance. It has not yet been quantified how much of these small scale structures contribute to the solar irradiance and how much it varies over the solar cycle. In this paper, we used Ca II K images obtained from the telescope installed at Kodaikanal observatory. We report a method to separate the network elements from the background structure and plage regions. We compute the changes in the network element area index during the minimum phase of solar cycle and part of the ascending phase of cycle 24. The measured area occupied by the network elements is about 30% and plages less than 1% of the solar disk during the observation period from February 2008-2011. During the extended period of minimum activity it is observed that the network element area index decreases by about 7% compared to the area occupied by the network elements in 2008. A long term study of network element area index is required to understand the variations over the solar cycle.

Gamma-rays and neutrons are the only sources of information on energetic ions present during solar flares and on properties of these ions when they interact in the solar atmosphere. The production of {\gamma}-rays and neutrons results from convolution of the nuclear cross-sections with the ion distribution functions in the atmosphere. The observed {\gamma}-ray and neutron fluxes thus provide useful diagnostics for the properties of energetic ions, yielding strong constraints on acceleration mechanisms as well as properties of the interaction sites. The problem of ion transport between the accelerating and interaction sites must also be addressed to infer as much information as possible on the properties of the primary ion accelerator. In the last couple of decades, both theoretical and observational developments have led to substantial progress in understanding the origin of solar {\gamma}-rays and neutrons. This chapter reviews recent developments in the study of solar {\gamma}-rays and of solar neutrons at the time of the RHESSI era. The unprecedented quality of the RHESSI data reveals {\gamma}-ray line shapes for the first time and provides {\gamma}-ray images. Our previous understanding of the properties of energetic ions based on measurements from the former solar cycles is also summarized. The new results-obtained owing both to the gain in spectral resolution (both with RHESSI and with the non solar-dedicated INTEGRAL/SPI instrument) and to the pioneering imaging technique in the {\gamma}-ray domain-are presented in the context of this previous knowledge. Still open questions are emphasized in the last section of the chapter and future perspectives on this field are briefly discussed.

We present an analysis of the 15 February 2011 X-class solar flare, previously reported to produce the first sunquake in solar cycle 24 (Kosovichev 2011). Using acoustic holography, we confirm the first, and report a second, weaker, seismic source associated with this flare. We find that the two sources are located at either end of a sigmoid which indicates the presence of a flux rope. Contrary to the majority of previously reported sunquakes, the acoustic emission precedes the peak of major hard X-ray (HXR) sources by several minutes. Furthermore, the strongest hard X-ray footpoints derived from RHESSI data are found to be located away from the seismic sources in the flare ribbons. We account for these discrepancies within the context of a phenomenological model of a flux rope eruption and accompanying two-ribbon flare. We propose that the sunquakes are triggered at the footpoints of the erupting flux rope at the start of the flare impulsive phase and eruption onset, while the main hard X-ray sources appear later at the footpoints of the flare loops formed under the rising flux rope. Possible implications of this scenario for the theoretical interpretation of the forces driving sunquakes are discussed.

Extensive interplanetary scintillation (IPS) observations at 327 MHz obtained between 1983 and 2009 clearly show a steady and significant drop in the turbulence levels in the entire inner heliosphere starting from around ~1995. We believe that this large-scale IPS signature, in the inner heliosphere, coupled with the fact that solar polar fields have also been declining since ~1995, provide a consistent result showing that the buildup to the deepest minimum in 100 years actually began more than a decade earlier.

Extensive interplanetary scintillation (IPS) observations at 327 MHz obtained between 1983 and 2009 clearly show a steady and significant drop in the turbulence levels in the entire inner heliosphere starting from around ~1995. We believe that this large-scale IPS signature, in the inner heliosphere, coupled with the fact that solar polar fields have also been declining since ~1995, provide a consistent result showing that the buildup to the deepest minimum in 100 years actually began more than a decade earlier.

The difference between consecutive daily Sunspot Numbers was analysed. Its distribution was approximated on a large time scale with an exponential law. In order to verify this approximation a Maximum Entropy distribution was generated by a modified version of the Simulated Annealing algorithm. The exponential approximation holds for the generated distribution too. The exponential law is characteristic for time scales covering whole cycles and it is mostly a characteristic of the Sunspot Number fluctuations and not of its average variation.

New discoveries of transiting extrasolar planets are reported weekly. Ground based surveys as well as space borne observatories like CoRoT and Kepler are responsible for filling the statistical voids of planets on distant stellar systems. I want to discuss the stellar activity and its impact on the discovery of extrasolar planets. Up to now the discovery of small rocky planets called “Super-Earths” like CoRoT-7b and Kepler-10b are the only exceptions. The question arises, why among over 500 detected and verified planets the amount of smaller planets is strikingly low. An explanation besides that the verification of small planets is an intriguing task, is the high level of stellar activity that has been observed. Stellar activity can be observed at different time-scales from long term irradiance variations similar to the well known solar cycle, over stellar rotation in the regime of days, down to the observations of acoustic modes in the domain of minutes. But also non periodic events like flares or the activity signal of the granulation can prevent the detection of a transiting Earth sized planet. I will describe methods to detect transit-like signals in stellar photometric data, the influences introduced by the star, the observer and their impact on the success. Finally different mathematical models and approximations of transit signals will be examined on their sensibility of stellar activity. I present a statistical overview of stellar activity in the CoRoT dataset. The influence of stellar activity will be analysed on different transiting planets: CoRoT-2b, CoRoT-4b und CoRoT-6b. Stellar activity can prevent the successful detection of a transiting planet, where CoRoT-7b marks the borderline. Future missions like Plato will be required to provide long-term observations with mmag precision to overcome the limitations set by active stars in our Galactic neighbourhood.

My brief for the IAC Winter School was to cover observational results on helioseismology, flagging where possible implications of those results for the asteroseismic study of solar-type stars. My desire to make such links meant that I concentrated largely upon results for low angular-degree (low-l) solar p modes, in particular results derived from “Sun-as-a-star” observations (which are of course most instructive for the transfer of experience from helioseismology to asteroseismology). The lectures covered many aspects of helioseismology – modern helioseismology is a diverse field. In these notes, rather than discuss each aspect to a moderate level of detail, I have instead made the decision to concentrate upon one theme, that of “sounding” the solar activity cycle with helioseismology. I cover the topics from the lectures and I also include some new material, relating both to the lecture topics and other aspects I did not have time to cover. Implications for asteroseismology are developed and discussed throughout.

The Total Solar Irradiance varies over a solar cycle of 11 years and maybe over cycles with longer period. Is the solar diameter variable over time too? We introduce a new method to perform high resolution astrometry of the solar diameter from the ground, through the observations of eclipses by reconsidering the definition of the solar edge. A discussion of the solar diameter and its variations must be linked to the Limb Darkening Function (LDF) using the luminosity evolution of a Baily’s Bead and the profile of the lunar limb available from satellite data. This approach unifies the definition of solar edge with LDF inflection point for eclipses and drift-scan or heliometric methods. The method proposed is applied for the videos of the eclipse in 15 January 2010 recorded in Uganda and in India. The result shows light at least 0.85 arcsec beyond the inflection point, and this suggests to reconsider the evaluations of the historical eclipses made with naked eye.

The Total Solar Irradiance varies over a solar cycle of 11 years and maybe over cycles with longer period. Is the solar diameter variable over time too? We introduce a new method to perform high resolution astrometry of the solar diameter from the ground, through the observations of eclipses by reconsidering the definition of the solar edge. A discussion of the solar diameter and its variations must be linked to the Limb Darkening Function (LDF) using the luminosity evolution of a Baily’s Bead and the profile of the lunar limb available from satellite data. This approach unifies the definition of solar edge with LDF inflection point for eclipses and drift-scan or heliometric methods. The method proposed is applied for the videos of the eclipse in 15 January 2010 recorded in Uganda and in India. The result shows light at least 0.85 arcsec beyond the inflection point, and this suggests to reconsider the evaluations of the historical eclipses made with naked eye.

This paper updates the influence of environmental and source factors of shocks driven by coronal mass ejections (CMEs) that are likely to influence the solar energetic particle (SEP) events. The intensity variation due to CME interaction reported in [1] is confirmed by expanding the investigation to all the large SEP events of solar cycle 23. The large SEP events are separated into two groups, one associated with CMEs running into other CMEs, and the other with CMEs running into the ambient solar wind. SEP events with CME interaction generally have a higher intensity. New possibilities such as the influence of coronal holes on the SEP intensity are also discussed. For example, the presence of a large coronal hole between a well-connected eruption and the solar disk center may render the shock poorly connected because of the interaction between the CME and the coronal hole. This point is illustrated using the 2004 December 3 SEP event delayed by about 12 hours from the onset of the associated CME. There is no other event at the Sun that can be associated with the SEP onset. This event is consistent with the possibility that the coronal hole interaction influences the connectivity of the CMEs that produce SEPs, and hence the intensity of the SEP event.

The linear relationship between the maximum amplitudes (R$_{max}$) of sunspot cycles and preceding minima (R$_{min}$) is one of the precursor methods used to predict the amplitude of the upcoming solar cycle. In the recent past this method has been subjected to severe criticism. In this communication we show that this simple method is reliable and can profitably be used for prediction purposes. With the 13-month smoothed R$_{min}$ of 1.8 at the beginning, it is predicted that the R$_{max}$ of the ongoing cycle will be around 85$\pm$17, suggesting that Cycle 24 may be of moderate strength. Based on a second order polynomial dependence between the rise time (T$_R$) and R$_{max}$, it is predicted that Cycle 24 will reach its smoothed maximum amplitude during the third quarter of the year 2013. An important finding of this paper is that the rise time cycle amplitude relation reaches a minimum at about 3 to 3.5 years corresponding to a cycle amplitude of about 160. The Waldmeier effect breaks at this point and T$_{R}$ increases further with increase in R$_{max}$. This feature, we believe, may put a constraint on the flux transport dynamo models and lead to more accurate physical principles based predictions.

Mars was observed in X-rays during April 3-5 2008 for 82 ksec with the Japanese Suzaku observatory. Mars has been known to emit X-rays via the scattering of solar X-rays and via the charge exchange between neutral atoms in the exosphere and solar wind ions. Past theoretical studies suggest that the exospheric neutral density may vary by a factor of up to 10 over the solar cycle. To investigate a potential change of the exospheric charge exchange emission, Mars was observed with Suzaku at solar minimum. Significant signals were not detected at the position of Mars in the energy band of 0.2-5 keV. A 2 sigma upper limit of the O VII line flux in 0.5-0.65 keV was 4.3$\times10^{-5}$ ph cm$^{-2}$ s$^{-1}$. Comparing this upper limit to the past Chandra and XMM-Newton observations conducted near solar maximum, it was found that the exospheric density at solar minimum does not exceed that near solar maximum by more than 6-70 times.

We present and discuss the strong correspondence between evolution of the emission length scale in the lower transition region and in situ measurements of the fast solar wind composition during this most recent solar minimum. We combine recent analyses demonstrating the variance in the (supergranular) network emission length scale measured by SOHO (and STEREO) with that of the Helium abundance (from WIND) and the degree of Iron fractionation in the solar wind (from the ACE and Ulysses). The net picture developing is one where a decrease in the Helium abundance and the degree of Iron fractionation (approaching values expected of the photosphere) in the fast wind indicate a significant change in the process loading material into the fast solar wind during the recent solar minimum. This result is compounded by a study of the Helium abundance during the space age using the NASA OMNI database which shows a slowly decaying amount of Helium being driven into the heliosphere over the course of the several solar cycles.

The contribution of the Babcock-Leighton mechanism to the generation of the Sun’s poloidal magnetic field is estimated from sunspot data for three solar cycles. Comparison of the derived quantities with the A-index of the large-scale magnetic field suggests a positive answer to the question posed in the title of this paper.

The long term study of the Sun is necessary if we are to determine the evolution of sunspot properties and thereby inform modeling of the solar dynamo, particularly on scales of a solar cycle. We aim to determine a number of sunspot properties over cycle 23 using the uniform database provided by the SOHO Michelson Doppler Imager data. We focus in particular on their distribution on the solar disk, maximum magnetic field and umbral/penumbral areas. We investigate whether the secular decrease in sunspot maximum magnetic field reported in Kitt Peak data is present also in MDI data. We have used the Sunspot Tracking And Recognition Algorithm (STARA) to detect all sunspots present in the SOHO Michelson Doppler Imager continuum data giving us 30 084 separate detections. We record information on the sunspot locations, area and magnetic field properties and corresponding information for the umbral areas detected within the sunspots, and track them through their evolution. We find the total visible umbral area is 20-40% of the total visible sunspot area at all stages of the solar cycle. We find that the number of sunspots observed follows the Solar Influences Data Centre International Sunspot Number with some interesting deviations. Finally, we use the magnetic information in our catalogue to study the long term variation of magnetic field strength within sunspot umbrae and find that it increases and decreases along with the sunspot number. However, if we were to assume a secular decreaseas was reported in the Kitt Peak data and take into account sunspots throughout the whole solar cycle we would find the maximum umbral magnetic fields to be decreasing by 23.6 \pm 3.9 Gauss per year, which is far less than has previously been observed by other studies. If we only look at the declining phase of cycle 23 we find the decrease in sunspot magnetic fields to be 70 Gauss per year.

A combination of diamagnetic pumping and a nonlocal alpha-effect of the Babcock-Leighton type in a solar dynamo model helps to reproduce observations of solar magnetic activity. The period of the solar cycle can be reproduced without reducing magnetic diffusivity in the bulk of the convection zone below the standard mixing-length value of $10^{13}$ cm$^2$s$^{-1}$. The simulated global fields are antisymmetric about the equator and the toroidal-to-poloidal field ratio is about a thousand. The time-latitude diagrams of magnetic fields in the model without meridional flow, however, differ from observations. Only when the meridional flow is included and the alpha-effect profile peaking at mid latitudes is applied, can the observational butterfly diagrams be reproduced.

The scope of this work is to study the role that the solar weather plays in terrestrial weather. For this reason we study the effect of the solar activity on the climate changes in Greece. In the current work we look for possible correlation between the solar activity data spanning the years from 1975 to 2000 and the meteorological data from two weather stations based inside the city of Athens, Greece (New Philadelphia) and in greater Athens in the north of Attica (Tatoi area). We examine the annual variations of the average values of six meteorological parameters: temperature, atmospheric pressure, direction and intensity of wind, rainfall and relative air humidity. The solar data include decade variations, within the above period, of the solar irradiance, mean sunspot number between two solar cycles, magnetic cycle influence, and solar UV driving of climate (radio flux).

The Grad-Shafranov reconstruction is a method of estimating the orientation (invariant axis) and cross-section of magnetic flux ropes using the data from a single spacecraft. It can be applied to various magnetic structures such as magnetic clouds (MCs) and flux ropes embedded into the magnetopause and in the solar wind. We develop a number of improvements of this technique and show some examples of the reconstruction procedure of interplanetary coronal mass ejections (ICMEs) observed at 1 AU by the STEREO, WIND and ACE spacecraft during the minimum following the solar cycle 23. The analysis is conducted not only for ideal localized ICME events but also for non-trivial cases of magnetic clouds in fast solar wind. The Grad-Shafranov reconstruction gives reasonable results for the sample events, although it possesses certain limitations, which need to be taken into account during the interpretation of the model results.

We study the latitudinal distribution of sunspots observed from 1874 to 2009 using the center-of-latitude (COL). We calculate COL by taking the area-weighted mean latitude of sunspots for each calendar month. We then form the latitudinal distribution of COL for the sunspots appearing in the northern and southern hemispheres separately, and in both hemispheres with unsigned and signed latitudes, respectively. We repeat the analysis with subsets which are divided based on the criterion of which hemisphere is dominant for a given solar cycle. Our primary findings are as follows: (1) COL is not monotonically decreasing with time in each cycle. Small humps can be seen (or short plateaus) around every solar maxima. (2) The distribution of COL resulting from each hemisphere is bimodal, which can well be represented by the double Gaussian function. (3) As far as the primary component of the double Gaussian function is concerned, for a given data subset, the distributions due to the sunspots appearing in two different hemispheres are alike. Regardless of which hemisphere is magnetically dominant, the primary component of the double Gaussian function seems relatively unchanged. (4) When the northern (southern) hemisphere is dominant the width of the secondary component of the double Gaussian function in the northern (southern) hemisphere case is about twice as wide as that in the southern (northern) hemisphere. (5) For the distribution of the COL averaged with signed latitude, whose distribution is basically described by a single Gaussian function, it is shifted to the positive (negative) side when the northern (southern) hemisphere is dominant. Finally, we conclude by briefly discussing the implications of these findings on the variations in the solar activity.

We analyze the effect of solar features on the variability of the solar irradiance in three different spectral ranges. Our study is based on two solar-cycles’ worth of full-disk photometric images from the San Fernando Observatory, obtained with red, blue and Ca II K-line filters. For each image we measure the photometric sum, Sigma, which is the relative contribution of solar features to the disk-integrated intensity of the image. The photometric sums in the red and blue continuum, Sigma_r and Sigma_b, exhibit similar temporal patterns: they are negatively correlated with solar activity, with strong short-term variability and weak solar-cycle variability. However, the Ca II K-line photometric sum, Sigma_K, is positively correlated with solar activity and has strong variations on solar-cycle timescales. We show that we can model the variability of the Sun’s bolometric flux as a linear combination of Sigma_r and Sigma_K. We infer that, over solar-cycle timescales, the variability of the Sun’s bolometric irradiance is directly correlated with spectral line variability, but inversely correlated with continuum variability. Our blue and red continuum filters are quite similar to the Str\”omgren b and y filters used to measure stellar photometric variability. We conclude that active stars whose visible continuum brightness varies inversely with activity, as measured by the Ca HK index, are displaying a pattern that is similar to that of the Sun, i.e. radiative variability in the visible continuum that is spot-dominated.

We show that simple 2 and 3-layer flux-transport dynamos, when forced at the top by a poloidal source term, can produce a widely varying amplitude of toroidal field at the bottom, depending on how close the meridional flow speed of the bottom layer is to the propagation speed of the forcing applied above the top layer, and how close the amplitude of the $\alpha$-effect is to two values that give rise to a resonant response. This effect should be present in this class of dynamo model no matter how many layers are included. This result could have implications for the prediction of future solar cycles from the surface magnetic fields of prior cycles. It could be looked for in flux-transport dynamos that are more realistic for the Sun, done in spherical geometry with differential rotation, meridional flow and $\alpha$-effect that vary with latitude and time as well as radius. Because of these variations, if resonance occurs, it should be more localized in time, latitude and radius.

The tachocline is believed to be the region where the solar dynamo operates. With over a solar cycle’s worth of data available from the MDI and GONG instruments, we are in a position to investigate not merely the average structure of the solar tachocline, but also its time variations. We determine the properties of the tachocline as a function of time by fitting a two-dimensional model that takes latitudinal variations of the tachocline properties into account. We confirm that if we consider central position of the tachocline, it is prolate. Our results show that the tachocline is thicker at higher latitudes than the equator, making the overall shape of the tachocline more complex. Of the tachocline properties examined, the transition of the rotation rate across the tachocline, and to some extent the position of the tachocline, show some temporal variations.

This review provides an introduction to the generation and evolution of the Sun’s magnetic field, summarising both observational evidence and theoretical models. The eleven year solar cycle, which is well known from a variety of observed quantities, strongly supports the idea of a large-scale solar dynamo. Current theoretical ideas on the location and mechanism of this dynamo are presented. The solar cycle influences the behaviour of the global coronal magnetic field and it is the eruptions of this field that can impact on the Earth’s environment. These global coronal variations can be modelled to a surprising degree of accuracy. Recent high resolution observations of the Sun’s magnetic field in quiet regions, away from sunspots, show that there is a continual evolution of a small-scale magnetic field, presumably produced by small-scale dynamo action in the solar interior. Sunspots, a natural consequence of the large-scale dynamo, emerge, evolve and disperse over a period of several days. Numerical simulations can help to determine the physical processes governing the emergence of sunspots. We discuss the interaction of these emerging fields with the pre-existing coronal field, resulting in a variety of dynamic phenomena.

In this paper, we address the controversy regarding the recent extended solar minimum as seen in helioseismic low- and intermediate-degree mode frequencies: studies from different instruments identify different epochs of seismic minima. Here we use mode frequencies from a network of six identical instruments, Global Oscillation Network Group, continuously collecting data for more than 15 years, to investigate the epoch of minimum in solar oscillation frequencies prior to the beginning of solar cycle 24. We include both low- and intermediate-degree modes in the $\ell$ range of 0 — 120 and frequency range of 2.0 — 3.5 mHz. In this analysis, we demonstrate that there were indeed two minima in oscillation frequencies, depending upon the degree of modes, or more precisely the lower turning point radius of the propagating wave. We also analyze frequencies as a function of latitude to identify the beginning of solar cycle 24. We observe two minima at high latitudes and a single minimum at mid/low latitudes. This scenario is in contrast to cycle 23 where the epoch of seismic minimum did not change with latitude or depth. Our results also hint towards a possible role of the relic magnetic field in modifying the oscillation frequencies of modes sampling deeper layers.

A stable cyclicity of correlation coefficients Kcorr for some solar activity indices versus F10,7 was found after monthly averages values analysis. These indices are: Wolf numbers, 10,7 cm radio flux F10,7, 0,1-0,8 nm background, the total solar irradiance, Mg II UV-index (280 nm core to wing ratio) and counts of flares. The correlation coefficients of the linear regression of these solar activity indices versus F10,7 were analyzed for every year in solar cycles 21 – 23. We found out that the values of yearly determined correlation coefficients Kcorr for solar activity indices versus F10,7 show the cyclic variations with stable period closed to half length of 11-year cycle (5,5 years approximately)

The first X-class flare of the current solar cycle 24 occurred in Active Region NOAA 11158 during its central meridian passage on 2011 February 15. This two ribbon white-light flare was well observed by the Helioseismic and Magnetic Imager (HMI) on board Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO). During the peak phase of the flare, we detected magnetic and Doppler velocity transients appearing near the umbral boundary of the main sunspot. These transients persisted for a few minutes and showed spatial and temporal correspondence with the flare kernels. The observed magnetic polarity at the transients’ locations underwent sign reversal, together with large enhancement in Doppler velocities. We explain this observational phenomena using the HMI spectral data obtained before, during and after the flare. These changes were reflected in the maps of the AR in all the Stokes parameters. Association of the transient features with various signatures of the flare and the cause and effects of their appearance are also presented on the basis of present theoretical models.

The first X-class flare (X2.2) of the current solar cycle 24 occurred in Active Region (AR) NOAA 11158 during its central meridian passage on 2011 February 15. This two ribbon white-light flare was well observed by the Helioseismic and Magnetic Imager (HMI) on board Solar Dynamics Observatory. From the HMI high resolution observations, we detected magnetic and Doppler velocity transients appearing near the umbral boundary of the main sunspot during the peak phase of the flare. These transients were spatially and temporally associated with the white-light flare ribbons. Also, magnetic polarity went through sign reversal at the location of transients. On the other hand, Doppler velocity did not show such a reversal at the transient’s location, while large magnitude enhancement occurred there. We attempt to explain the cause and observational characteristics of these transients on the basis of present theoretical models.

The first X-class flare (X2.2) of the current solar cycle 24 occurred in Active Region (AR) NOAA 11158 during its central meridian passage on 2011 February 15. This two ribbon white-light flare was well observed by the Helioseismic and Magnetic Imager (HMI) on board Solar Dynamics Observatory. From the HMI high resolution observations, we detected magnetic and Doppler velocity transients appearing near the umbral boundary of the main sunspot during the peak phase of the flare. These transients were spatially and temporally associated with the white-light flare ribbons. Also, magnetic polarity went through sign reversal at the location of transients. On the other hand, Doppler velocity did not show such a reversal at the transient’s location, while large magnitude enhancement occurred there. We attempt to explain the cause and observational characteristics of these transients on the basis of present theoretical models.

Solar Cycle 24 is having a historically long and weak start. Observations of the Fe XIV corona from the Sacramento Peak site of the National Solar Observatory show an abnormal pattern of emission compared to observations of Cycles 21, 22, and 23 from the same instrument. The previous three cycles have shown a strong, rapid “Rush to the Poles” (previously observed in polar crown prominences and earlier coronal observations) in the parameter N(t,l,dt) (average number of Fe XIV emission features per day over dt days at time t and latitude l). Cycle 24 displays a weak, intermittent, and slow “Rush” that is apparent only in the northern hemisphere. If the northern Rush persists at its current rate, evidence from the Rushes in previous cycles indicates that solar maximum will occur in early 2013 or late 2012, at least in the northern hemisphere. At lower latitudes, solar maximum previously occurred when the time maximum of N(t,l,365) reached approximately 20{\deg} latitude. Currently, this parameter is at or below 30{\deg}and decreasing in latitude. Unfortunately, it is difficult at this time to calculate the rate of decrease in N(t,l,365). However, the southern hemisphere could reach 20{\deg} in 2011. Nonetheless, considering the levels of activity so far, there is a possibility that the maximum could be indiscernible

In this paper we conduct a data survey searching for well-defined streamer wave events observed by the Large Angle and Spectrometric Coronagraph (LASCO) on-board the Solar and Heliospheric Observatory (SOHO) throughout Solar Cycle 23. As a result, 8 candidate events are found and presented here. We compare different events and find that in most of them the driving CMEs ejecta are characterized by a high speed and a wide angular span, and the CME-streamer interactions occur generally along the flank of the streamer structure at an altitude no higher than the bottom of the field of view of LASCO C2. In addition, all front-side CMEs have accompanying flares. These common observational features shed light on the excitation conditions of streamer wave events. We also conduct a further analysis on one specific streamer wave event on 5 June 2003. The heliocentric distances of 4 wave troughs/crests at various exposure times are determined; they are then used to deduce the wave properties like period, wavelength, and phase speeds. It is found that both the period and wavelength increase gradually with the wave propagation along the streamer plasma sheet, and the phase speed of the preceding wave is generally faster than that of the trailing ones. The associated coronal seismological study yields the radial profiles of the Alfv\’en speed and magnetic field strength in the region surrounding the streamer plasma sheet. Both quantities show a general declining trend with time. This is interpreted as an observational manifestation of the recovering process of the CME-disturbed corona. It is also found that the Alfv\’enic critical point is at about 10 R$_\odot$ where the flow speed, which equals the Alfv\’en speed, is $\sim$ 200 km s$^{-1}$.

We study the dynamical and statistical properties of turbulent cross-helicity (correlation of the aligned fluctuating velocity and magnetic field components). We derive an equation governing generation and evolution of the turbulent cross-helicity and discuss its meaning for the dynamo. Using symmetry properties of the problem we suggest a general expression for the turbulent cross-helicity pseudo-scalar and compute the turbulent coefficients in this expression. Effects of the density stratification, large-scale magnetic fields, differential rotation and turbulent convection are taken into account. We investigate the relative contribution of these effects to the cross-helicity evolution for two kinds of dynamo models of the solar cycle including a distributed mean-field model and a flux-transport dynamo model. We show that the contribution from the density stratification follows the evolution of the radial magnetic field, while large-scale electric currents produce a more complicated pattern of the cross-helicity of the comparable magnitude. We suggest that the results of observational analysis of the cross-helicity will depend on the averaging scales. Our results show that the pattern of the cross-helicity evolution strongly depends on details of the dynamo mechanism. Thus, we anticipate that direct observations of the cross-helicity on the Sun may serve for the diagnostic purpose of the solar dynamo process.

We study the dynamical and statistical properties of turbulent cross-helicity (correlation of the aligned fluctuating velocity and magnetic field components). We derive an equation governing generation and evolution of the turbulent cross-helicity and discuss its meaning for the dynamo. Using symmetry properties of the problem we suggest a general expression for the turbulent cross-helicity pseudo-scalar and compute the turbulent coefficients in this expression. Effects of the density stratification, large-scale magnetic fields, differential rotation and turbulent convection are taken into account. We investigate the relative contribution of these effects to the cross-helicity evolution for two kinds of dynamo models of the solar cycle including a distributed mean-field model and a flux-transport dynamo model. We show that the contribution from the density stratification follows the evolution of the radial magnetic field, while large-scale electric currents produce a more complicated pattern of the cross-helicity of the comparable magnitude. We suggest that the results of observational analysis of the cross-helicity will depend on the averaging scales. Our results show that the pattern of the cross-helicity evolution strongly depends on details of the dynamo mechanism. Thus, we anticipate that direct observations of the cross-helicity on the Sun may serve for the diagnostic purpose of the solar dynamo process.

Using the daily Mount Wilson Doppler velocity data during 1986-1994 (solar cycle 22), we studied the short-term variations of the order of a few days to a month time scales in the solar differential rotation coefficients A-bar, B-bar and C-bar. We found that a ~9-day periodicity is statistically highly significant in the variations of C-bar at the maximum of solar cycle 22. A similar periodicity is found in the variations of B-bar during the descending phase of the cycle 22 with significant on > 99.9% confidence level. At this cycle maximum, a 30-40 day periodicity is found to be dominant among the variations in B-bar, and this periodicity is found in A-bar during almost throughout the period 1986-1994.The ~9-day periodicity in the variation of the differential rotation approximately matches with the known quasi 10-day periodicity in the total solar irradiance (TSI) variability. Hence, we speculate that there exists a relationship between the differential rotation and TSI variability. We suggest that the 9-10 day periodicities of the differential rotation and TSI have a relationship with the production and the emergence rates of the large-scale solar magnetic flux.

Mursula et al. [2011] (MTL11) suggest that there is a 22-year variation in solar wind activity that coupled with the variation in heliographic latitude of the Earth during the year, gives rise to an apparent semiannual variation of geomagnetic activity in averages obtained over several solar cycles. They conclude that the observed semiannual variation is seriously overestimated and is largely an artifact of this inferred 22-year variation. We show: (1) that there is no systematically alternating annual variation of geomagnetic activity or of the solar driver, changing with the polarity of the solar polar fields, (2) that the universal time variation of geomagnetic activity at all times have the characteristic imprint of the equinoctial hypothesis rather than that of the axial hypothesis required by the suggestion of MTL11, and (3) that the semiannual variation is not an artifact, is not overestimated, and does not need revision.

We study the solar sources of an intense geomagnetic storm of solar cycle 23 that occurred on 20 November 2003, based on ground- and space-based multiwavelength observations. The coronal mass ejections (CMEs) responsible for the above geomagnetic storm originated from the super-active region NOAA 10501. We investigate the H-alpha observations of the flare events made with a 15 cm solar tower telescope at ARIES, Nainital, India. The propagation characteristics of the CMEs have been derived from the three-dimensional images of the solar wind (i.e., density and speed) obtained from the interplanetary scintillation data, supplemented with other ground- and space-based measurements. The TRACE, SXI and H-alpha observations revealed two successive ejections (of speeds ~350 and ~100 km/s), originating from the same filament channel, which were associated with two high speed CMEs (~1223 and ~1660 km/s, respectively). These two ejections generated propagating fast shock waves (i.e., fast drifting type II radio bursts) in the corona. The interaction of these CMEs along the Sun-Earth line has led to the severity of the storm. According to our investigation, the interplanetary medium consisted of two merging magnetic clouds (MCs) that preserved their identity during their propagation. These magnetic clouds made the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) southward for a long time, which reconnected with the geomagnetic field, resulting the super-storm (Dst_peak=-472 nT) on the Earth.

We study the solar sources of an intense geomagnetic storm of solar cycle 23 that occurred on 20 November 2003, based on ground- and space-based multiwavelength observations. The coronal mass ejections (CMEs) responsible for the above geomagnetic storm originated from the super-active region NOAA 10501. We investigate the H-alpha observations of the flare events made with a 15 cm solar tower telescope at ARIES, Nainital, India. The propagation characteristics of the CMEs have been derived from the three-dimensional images of the solar wind (i.e., density and speed) obtained from the interplanetary scintillation data, supplemented with other ground- and space-based measurements. The TRACE, SXI and H-alpha observations revealed two successive ejections (of speeds ~350 and ~100 km/s), originating from the same filament channel, which were associated with two high speed CMEs (~1223 and ~1660 km/s, respectively). These two ejections generated propagating fast shock waves (i.e., fast drifting type II radio bursts) in the corona. The interaction of these CMEs along the Sun-Earth line has led to the severity of the storm. According to our investigation, the interplanetary medium consisted of two merging magnetic clouds (MCs) that preserved their identity during their propagation. These magnetic clouds made the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) southward for a long time, which reconnected with the geomagnetic field, resulting the super-storm (Dst_peak=-472 nT) on the Earth.

The paper presents a study of a solar dynamo model operating in the bulk of the convection zone with the toroidal magnetic field flux concentrated in the subsurface rotational shear layer. We explore how this type of dynamo may depend on spatial variations of turbulent parameters and on the differential rotation near the surface. The mean-field dynamo model takes into account the evolution of magnetic helicity and describes its nonlinear feedback on the generation of large-scale magnetic field by the $\alpha$-effect. We compare the magnetic cycle characteristics predicted by the model, including the cycle asymmetry (associated with the growth and decay times) and the duration – amplitude relation (Waldmeier’s effects), with the observed sunspot cycle properties. We show that the model qualitatively reproduces the basic properties of the solar cycles.

The paper presents a study of a solar dynamo model operating in the bulk of the convection zone with the toroidal magnetic field flux concentrated in the subsurface rotational shear layer. We explore how this type of dynamo may depend on spatial variations of turbulent parameters and on the differential rotation near the surface. The mean-field dynamo model takes into account the evolution of magnetic helicity and describes its nonlinear feedback on the generation of large-scale magnetic field by the $\alpha$-effect. We compare the magnetic cycle characteristics predicted by the model, including the cycle asymmetry (associated with the growth and decay times) and the duration – strength relation (Waldmeier’s effects), with the observed sunspot cycle properties. We show that the model qualitatively reproduces the basic properties of the solar cycles.

This work reviews our understanding of the magnetic fields observed in the quiet Sun. The subject has undergone a major change during the last decade (quiet revolution), and it will remain changing since the techniques of diagnostic employed so far are known to be severely biased. Keeping these caveats in mind, our work covers the main observational properties of the quiet Sun magnetic fields: magnetic field strengths, unsigned magnetic flux densities, magnetic field inclinations, as well as the temporal evolution on short time-scales (loop emergence), and long time-scales (solar cycle). We also summarize the main theoretical ideas put forward to explain the origin of the quiet Sun magnetism. A final prospective section points out various areas of solar physics where the quiet Sun magnetism may have an important physical role to play (chromospheric and coronal structure, solar wind acceleration, and solar elemental abundances).

Using vector magnetograms obtained with the Spectro-polarimeter (SP) on aboard Hinode satellite, we studied two helicity parameters (local twist and current helicity) of 64 active regions occurred in the descending phase of solar cycle 23 and the ascending phase of solar cycle 24. Our analysis gives the following results. (1) The 34 active regions of the solar cycle 24 follow the so-called hemispheric helicity rule, whereas the 30 active regions of the solar cycle 23 do not. (2) When combining all 64 active regions as one sample, they follow the hemispheric helicity sign rule as in most other observations. (3) Despite with the so-far most accurate measurement of vector magnetic field given by SP/Hinode, the rule is still weak with large scatters. (4) The data show evidence of different helicity signs between strong and weak fields, confirming previous result from a large sample of ground-based observations. (5) With two example sunspots we show that the helicity parameters change sign from the inner umbra to the outer penumbra, where the sign of penumbra agrees with the sign of the active region as a whole. From these results, we speculate that both the Sigma-effect (turbulent convection) and the dynamo have contributed in the generation of helicity, whereas in both cases turbulence in the convection zone has played a significant role.

High degree solar mode frequencies as measured by ring diagrams are known to change in the presence of the strong magnetic fields found in active regions. We examine these changes in frequency for a large sample of active regions analyzed with data from the Michelson Doppler Imager (MDI) onboard the SoHO spacecraft, spanning most of solar cycle 23. We confirm that the frequencies increase with increasing magnetic field strength, and that this dependence is generally linear. We find that the dependence is slightly but significantly different for active regions with different sunspot types.

Polar fields in solar cycle 23 were about 50% weaker than those in cycle 22. The only theoretical models which have addressed this puzzle are surface transport models and flux-transport dynamo models. Comparing polar fields obtained from numerical simulations using surface flux transport models and flux-transport dynamo models, we show that both classes of models can explain the polar field features within the scope of the physics included in the respective models. In both models, how polar fields change as a result of changes in meridional circulation depends on the details of meridional circulation profile used. Using physical reasoning and schematics as well as numerical solutions from a flux-transport dynamo model, we demonstrate that polar fields are determined mostly by the strength of surface poloidal source provided by the decay of tilted, bipolar active regions. Profile of meridional flow with latitude and its changes with time have much less effect in flux-transport dynamo models than in surface transport models.

In this paper, I present the results on large-scale evolution of density turbulence of solar wind in the inner heliosphere during 1985 – 2009. At a given distance from the Sun, the density turbulence is maximum around the maximum phase of the solar cycle and it reduces to ~70%, near the minimum phase. However, in the current minimum of solar activity, the level of turbulence has gradually decreased, starting from the year 2005, to the present level of ~30%. These results suggest that the source of solar wind changes globally, with the important implication that the supply of mass and energy from the Sun to the interplanetary space has significantly reduced in the present low level of activity.

In this paper, I review the results of 3-D evolution of the inner heliosphere over the solar cycle #23, based on observations of interplanetary scintillation (IPS) made at 327 MHz using the Ooty Radio Telescope. The large-scale features of solar wind speed and density turbulence of the current minimum are remarkably different from that of the previous cycle. The results on the solar wind density turbulence show that (1) the current solar minimum is experiencing a low level of coronal density turbulence, to a present value of ~50% lower than the previous similar phase, and (2) the scattering diameter of the corona has decreased steadily after the year 2003. The results on solar wind speed are consistent with the magnetic-field strength at the poles and the warping of heliospheric current sheet.

We investigate the dependence of the amount of the observed galactic cosmic ray (GCR) influx on the solar North-South asymmetry using the neutron count rates obtained from four stations and sunspot data in archives spanning six solar cycles from 1953 to 2008. We find that the observed GCR influxes at Moscow, Kiel, Climax and Huancayo stations are more suppressed when the solar activity in the southern hemisphere is dominant compared with when the solar activity in the northern hemisphere is dominant. Its reduction rates at four stations are all larger than those of the suppression due to other factors including the solar polarity effect on the GCR influx. We perform the student’s t-test to see how significant these suppressions are. It is found that suppressions due to the solar North-South asymmetry as well as the solar polarity are significant and yet the suppressions associated with the former are larger and more significant.

After summarizing the relevant observational data, we discuss how a study of flux tube dynamics in the solar convection zone helps us to understand the formation of sunspots. Then we introduce the flux transport dynamo model and assess its success in modelling both the solar cycle and its departures from strictly periodic behaviour.

Supergranulation is a component of solar convection that manifests itself on the photosphere as a cellular network of around 35 Mm across, with a turnover lifetime of 1-2 days. It is strongly linked to the structure of the magnetic field. The horizontal, divergent flows within supergranule cells carry local field lines to the cell boundaries, while the rotational properties of supergranule upflows may contribute to the restoration of the poloidal field as part of the dynamo mechanism that controls the solar cycle. The solar minimum at the transition from cycle 23 to 24 was notable for its low level of activity and its extended length. It is of interest to study whether the convective phenomena that influences the solar magnetic field during this time differed in character to periods of previous minima. This study investigates three characteristics (velocity components, sizes and lifetimes) of solar supergranulation. Comparisons of these characteristics are made between the minima of cycles 22/23 and 23/24 using MDI Doppler data from 1996 and 2008, respectively. It is found that whereas the lifetimes are equal during both epochs (around 18 h), the sizes are larger in 1996 (35.9 +/- 0.3 Mm) than in 2008 (35.0 +/- 0.3 Mm), while the dominant horizontal velocity flows are weaker (139 +/- 1 m/s in 1996; 141 +/- 1 m/s in 2008). Although numerical differences are seen, they are not conclusive proof of the most recent minimum being inherently unusual.

Maunder Minimum forms an archetype for the Grand minima, and detailed knowledge of its temporal development has important consequences for the solar dynamo theory dealing with long-term solar activity evolution. Here we reconsider the current paradigm of the Grand minimum general scenario by using newly recovered sunspot observations by G. Marcgraf and revising some earlier uncertain data for the period 1636–1642, i.e., one solar cycle before the beginning of the Maunder Minimum. The new and revised data dramatically change the magnitude of the sunspot cycle just before the Maunder Minimum, from 60–70 down to about 20, implying a possibly gradual onset of the Minimum with reduced activity started two cycles before it. This revised scenario of the Maunder Minimum changes, through the paradigm for Grand solar/stellar activity minima, the observational constraint on the solar/stellar dynamo theories focused on long-term studies and occurrence of Grand minima.

Although it is well known that the solar acoustic mode frequency increases as the solar activity increases, the mechanism behind it is still unknown. Mode frequencies with 20 < l < 900 obtained by applying spherical harmonic decomposition to MDI full-disk observations were used. First, the dependence of solar acoustic mode frequency with solar activity was examined and evidence of a quadratic relation was found indicating a saturation effect at high solar activity. Then, the frequency dependence of frequency differences between the activity minimum and maximum was analyzed. The frequency shift scaled by the normalized mode inertia follows a simple power law where the exponent for the p modes decreases by 37% for modes with frequency larger than 2.5 mHz.

Sunspot numbers exhibit large short-timescale (daily-monthly) variation in addition to longer timescale variation due to solar cycles. A formal statistical framework is presented for estimating and forecasting randomness in sunspot numbers on top of deterministic (including chaotic) models for solar cycles. The Fokker-Planck approach formulated assumes a specified long-term or secular variation in sunspot number over an underlying solar cycle via a driver function. The model then describes the observed randomness in sunspot number on top of this driver function. We consider a simple harmonic choice for the driver function, but the approach is general and can easily be extended to include other drivers which account for underlying physical processes and/or empirical features of the sunspot numbers. The framework is consistent during both solar maximum and minimum, and requires no parameter restrictions to ensure non-negative sunspot numbers. Model parameters are estimated using statistically optimal techniques. The model agrees both qualitatively and quantitatively with monthly sunspot data even with the simplistic representation of the periodic solar cycle. This framework should be particularly useful for solar cycle forecasters and is complementary to existing modeling techniques. An analytic approximation for the Fokker-Planck equation is presented, which is analogous to the Euler approximation, which which allows for efficient maximum likelihood estimation of large data sets and/or when using difficult to evaluate driver functions.

The X2.2-class solar flare of February 15, 2011, produced a powerful `sunquake’ event, representing a seismic response to the flare impact. The impulsively excited seismic waves formed a compact wavepacket traveling through the solar interior and appeared on the surface as expanding wave ripples. The Helioseismic and Magnetic Imager (HMI), instrument on SDO, observes variations of intensity, magnetic field and plasma velocity (Dopplergrams) on the surface of Sun almost uninterruptedly with high resolution (0.5 arcsec/pixel) and high cadence (45 sec). The flare impact on the solar surface was observed in the form of compact and rapid variations of the HMI observables (Doppler velocity, line-of-sight magnetic field and continuum intensity). These variations, caused by the impact of high-energy particles in the photosphere, formed a typical two-ribbon flare structure. The sunquake can be easily seen in the raw Dopplergram differences without any special data processing. The source of this quake was located near the outer boundary of a very complicated complicated sunspot region, NOAA 1158, in a sunspot penumbra and at the penumbra boundary. This caused an interesting plasma dynamics in the impact region. I present some preliminary results of analysis of the near-real-time data from HMI, and discuss properties of the sunquake and the flare impact sources.

With the unique database from Michelson Doppler Imager aboard the Solar and Heliospheric Observatory in an interval embodying solar cycle 23, the cyclic behavior of solar small-scale magnetic elements is studied. More than 13 million small-scale magnetic elements are selected, and the following results are unclosed. (1) The quiet regions dominated the Sun’s magnetic flux for about 8 years in the 12.25 year duration of Cycle 23. They contributed (0.94 – 1.44) $\times 10^{23}$ Mx flux to the Sun from the solar minimum to maximum. The monthly average magnetic flux of the quiet regions is 1.12 times that of active regions in the cycle. (2) The ratio of quiet region flux to that of the total Sun equally characterizes the course of a solar cycle. The 6-month running-average flux ratio of quiet region had been larger than 90.0% for 28 continuous months from July 2007 to October 2009, which characterizes very well the grand solar minima of Cycles 23-24. (3) From the small to large end of the flux spectrum, the variations of numbers and total flux of the network elements show no-correlation, anti-correlation, and correlation with sunspots, respectively. The anti-correlated elements, covering the flux of (2.9 – 32.0)$\times 10^{18}$ Mx, occupies 77.2% of total element number and 37.4% of quiet Sun flux. These results provide insight into reason for anti-correlated variations of small-scale magnetic activity during the solar cycle.

With the unique database from Michelson Doppler Imager aboard the Solar and Heliospheric Observatory in an interval embodying solar cycle 23, the cyclic behavior of solar small-scale magnetic elements is studied. More than 13 million small-scale magnetic elements are selected, and the following results are unclosed. (1) The quiet regions dominated the Sun\textsf{‘}s magnetic flux for about 8 years in the 12.25 year duration of Cycle 23. They contributed (0.94 — 1.44) $\times 10^{23}$ Mx flux to the Sun from the solar minimum to maximum. The monthly average magnetic flux of the quiet regions is 1.12 times that of active regions in the cycle. (2) The ratio of quiet region flux to that of the total Sun equally characterizes the course of a solar cycle. The 6-month running-average flux ratio of quiet region had been larger than 90.0% for 28 continuous months from July 2007 to October 2009, which characterizes very well the grand solar minima of Cycles 23-24. (3) From the small to large end of the flux spectrum, the variations of numbers and total flux of the network elements show no-correlation, anti-correlation, and correlation with sunspots, respectively. The anti-correlated elements, covering the flux of (2.9 – 32.0)$\times 10^{18}$ Mx, occupies 77.2% of total element number and 37.4% of quiet Sun flux. These results provide insight into reason for anti-correlated variations of small-scale magnetic activity during the solar cycle.

We have used semi-synthetic records of emerging sunspot groups based on sunspot number data as input for a surface flux transport model to reconstruct the evolution of the large-scale solar magnetic field and the open heliospheric flux from the year 1700 onward. The statistical properties of the semi-synthetic sunspot group records reflect those of the observed the Royal Greenwich Observatory photoheliographic results. These include correlations between the sunspot numbers and sunspot group latitudes, longitudes, areas and tilt angles. The reconstruction results for the total surface flux, the polar field, and the heliospheric open flux (determined by a current sheet source surface extrapolation) agree well with the available observational or empirically derived data and reconstructions. We confirm a significant positive correlation between the polar field during activity minimum periods and the strength of the subsequent sunspot cycle, which has implications for flux transport dynamo models for the solar cycle. Just prior to the Dalton minimum, at the end of the 18th century, a long cycle was followed by a weak cycle. We find that introducing a possibly `lost’ cycle between 1793 and 1800 leads to a shift of the minimum of the open flux by 15 years which is inconsistent with the cosmogenic isotope record.

We use the historic record of sunspot groups compiled by the Royal Greenwich Observatory together with the sunspot number to derive the statistical properties of sunspot group emergence in dependence of cycle phase and strength. In particular we discuss the latitude, longitude, area and tilt angle of sunspot groups as functions of the cycle strength and of time during the solar cycle. Using these empirical characteristics the time-latitude diagram of sunspot group emergence (butterfly diagram) is reconstructed from 1700 onward on the basis of the Wolf and group sunspot numbers. This reconstruction will be useful in studies of the long-term evolution of the Sun’s magnetic field.

It was found out that the distribution’s shape of the in-ecliptic (as well as radial) component of the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) significantly changes with the heliocentric distance, which poorly corresponds to classical models of the solar wind and the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) expansion. For example, distributions of the radial photospheric and the source surface’s magnetic field in the ecliptic plane are Gaussian-like, the distribution of the radial IMF component at the Earth orbit demonstrates two-humped shape, and it becomes again Gaussian-like at 3-4 AU. These differences lead to lack of correspondence between simulations of the IMF behaviour at 1 AU and observations. Our results indicate that picture of the IMF expansion into space is more complicated than usually considered, and the sector structure is not the only source of the two-humped shape of the in-ecliptic or radial IMF component. We have analysed data from different spacecraft at the distances from 0.29 AU to 4 AU and found that the shape of the radial IMF component distribution strongly depends on a heliocentric distance and a heliolatitude. The “two-humped IMF” effect is most brightly expressed at low heliolatitudes at 0.7-2 AU, but it fully disappears at 3-4 AU. There is also dependence of the IMF distributions’ view on a solar cycle due to active processes, such as solar flares and CMEs. We suppose that the in-ecliptic solar wind field at 1 AU is influenced by solar active regions in a high degree, and actually the distribution is the three-humped: two humps correspond to the IMF from the middle and high heliolatitudes and the third one is the theoretically expected distribution from the solar field nearby the heliomagnetic equator. Vanishing of the IMF zero-component with the distance from the Sun partially could be a result of a magnetic reconnection at the current sheets in the solar wind.

It was found out that the distribution’s shape of the in-ecliptic (as well as radial) component of the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) significantly changes with the heliocentric distance, which poorly corresponds to classical models of the solar wind and the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) expansion. For example, distributions of the radial photospheric and the source surface’s magnetic field in the ecliptic plane are Gaussian-like, the distribution of the radial IMF component at the Earth orbit demonstrates two-humped shape, and it becomes again Gaussian-like at 3-4 AU. These differences lead to lack of correspondence between simulations of the IMF behaviour at 1 AU and observations. Our results indicate that picture of the IMF expansion into space is more complicated than usually considered, and the sector structure is not the only source of the two-humped shape of the in-ecliptic or radial IMF component. We have analysed data from different spacecraft at the distances from 0.29 AU to 4 AU and found that the shape of the radial IMF component distribution strongly depends on a heliocentric distance and a heliolatitude. The “two-humped IMF” effect is most brightly expressed at low heliolatitudes at 0.7-2 AU, but it fully disappears at 3-4 AU. There is also dependence of the IMF distributions’ view on a solar cycle due to active processes, such as solar flares and CMEs. We suppose that the in-ecliptic solar wind field at 1 AU is influenced by solar active regions in a high degree, and actually the distribution is the three-humped: two humps correspond to the IMF from the middle and high heliolatitudes and the third one is the theoretically expected distribution from the solar field nearby the heliomagnetic equator. Vanishing of the IMF zero-component with the distance from the Sun partially could be a result of a magnetic reconnection at the current sheets in the solar wind.

Stellar activity is a potential important limitation to the detection of low mass extrasolar planets with indirect methods (RV, photometry, astrometry). In previous papers, using the Sun as a proxy, we investigated the impact of stellar activity (spots, plages, convection) on the detectability of an Earth-mass planet in the habitable zone (HZ) of solar-type stars with RV techniques. We extend here the detectability study to the case of astrometry. We used the sunspot and plages properties recorded over one solar cycle to infer the astrometric variations that a Sun-like star seen edge-on, 10 pc away, would exhibit, if covered by such spots/bright structures. We compare the signal to the one expected from the astrometric wobble (0.3 {\mu}as) of such a star surrounded by a one Earth-mass planet in the HZ. We also briefly investigate higher levels of activity. The activity-induced astrometric signal along the equatorial plane has an amplitude of typ. less than 0.2 {\mu}as (rms=0.07 {\mu}as), smaller than the one expected from an Earth-mass planet at 1 AU. Hence, for this level of activity, the detectability is governed by the instrumental precision rather than the activity. We show that for instance a one Earth-mass planet at 1 AU would be detected with a monthly visit during less than 5 years and an instrumental precision of 0.8 {\mu}as. A level of activity 5 times higher would still allow such a detection with a precision of 0.35 {\mu}as. We conclude that astrometry is an attractive approach to search for such planets around solar type stars with most levels of stellar activity.

It is known that the so-called problem of solar power pacemaker related to possible existence of some hidden but key mechanism of energy influence of the Sun on fundamental geophysical processes is one of the principal and puzzling problems of modern climatology. The “tracks” of this mechanism have been shown up in different problems of solar-terrestrial physics for a long time and, in particular, in climatology, where the solar-climate variability is stably observed. However, the mechanisms by which small changes in the Sun’s energy (solar irradiance or insolation) output during the solar cycle can cause change in the weather and climate are still unknown. We analyze possible causes of the solar-climate variability concentrating one’s attention on the physical substantiation of strong correlation between the temporal variations of magnetic flux of the solar tachocline zone and the Earth magnetic field (Y-component). We propose an effective mechanism of solar dynamo-geodynamo connection which plays the role of the solar power pacemaker of the Earth global climate.

It is known that the so-called problem of solar power pacemaker related to possible existence of some hidden but key mechanism of energy influence of the Sun on fundamental geophysical processes is one of the principal and puzzling problems of modern climatology. The “tracks” of this mechanism have been shown up in different problems of solar-terrestrial physics for a long time and, in particular, in climatology, where the solar-climate variability is stably observed. However, the mechanisms by which small changes in the Sun’s energy (solar irradiance or insolation) output during the solar cycle can cause change in the weather and climate are still unknown. We analyze possible causes of the solar-climate variability concentrating one’s attention on the physical substantiation of strong correlation between the temporal variations of magnetic flux of the solar tachocline zone and the Earth magnetic field (Y-component). We propose an effective mechanism of solar dynamo-geodynamo connection which plays the role of the solar power pacemaker of the Earth global climate.

Multiple recent investigations of solar magnetic field measurements have raised claims that the scale-free (fractal) or multiscale (multifractal) parameters inferred from the studied magnetograms may help assess the eruptive potential of solar active regions, or may even help predict major flaring activity stemming from these regions. We investigate these claims here, by testing three widely used scale-free and multiscale parameters, namely, the fractal dimension, the multifractal structure function and its inertial-range exponent, and the turbulent power spectrum and its power-law index, on a comprehensive data set of 370 timeseries of active-region magnetograms (17,733 magnetograms in total) observed by SOHO’s Michelson Doppler Imager (MDI) over the entire Solar Cycle 23. We find that both flaring and non-flaring active regions exhibit significant fractality, multifractality, and non-Kolmogorov turbulence but none of the three tested parameters manages to distinguish active regions with major flares from flare-quiet ones. We also find that the multiscale parameters, but not the scale-free fractal dimension, depend sensitively on the spatial resolution and perhaps the observational characteristics of the studied magnetograms. Extending previous works, we attribute the flare-forecasting inability of fractal and multifractal parameters to i) a widespread multiscale complexity caused by a possible underlying self-organization in turbulent solar magnetic structures, flaring and non-flaring alike, and ii) a lack of correlation between the fractal properties of the photosphere and overlying layers, where solar eruptions occur. However useful for understanding solar magnetism, therefore, scale-free and multiscale measures may not be optimal tools for active-region characterization in terms of eruptive ability or, ultimately,for major solar-flare prediction.